If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this pivotal Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Week 16 matchup on Christmas Eve, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Steelers vs. Raiders Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
This will be the first Steelers game since the great Franco Harris passed on at age 72. Harris was a 22-year-old rookie when he caught what became forever known as the “Immaculate Reception,” resulting in a game-winning touchdown for Pittsburgh over the Raiders.
MORE: Steelers vs. Raiders DFS Picks for Christmas Eve
The play occurred on fourth-and-10 with 22 seconds remaining. It should have fallen incomplete. The Raiders should have advanced to the AFC title game against the undefeated Dolphins.
Instead, Harris’ awareness and athleticism prevailed, and so, too, did the Steelers. It was their franchise’s first playoff victory in history. They’d enjoyed only eight other winning seasons since the franchise was born in 1933.
But on that day — exactly 50 years ago today — the Steelers’ dynasty was born. And Harris was the key.
These teams met in the playoffs each of the next four seasons, developing one of the biggest sports rivalries of the 1970s. They last met in the postseason on New Year’s Day, 1984 — Harris’s final game as a Steeler.
That’s the setup for Saturday night’s game. It will be emotional, and it will be intense. And it will be brutally cold. Two teams trying to stay alive in the playoff race. The Raiders attempting to live up to lofty preseason expectations, and the youthful Steelers attempting to launch their next dynasty.
Kenny Pickett Prop Bets
As of late Thursday, there aren’t many prop options available, perhaps because several questionable tags (including Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson) have forced line setters to play things conservatively. As a result, we’re greeted with plenty of anytime-TD lines but few other options.
For Kenny Pickett, we have two options. Will he throw a TD pass, and will he get picked off? The TD payout isn’t much. But facing a defense yielding 24 touchdown passes and netting only four interceptions, Pickett’s odds are too favorable to pass up.
Keep in mind: Pickett is still a rookie, but a talented one at that. His low-TD prop is based on the simple reality that he’s thrown only four touchdown passes. He was kept out of the end zone through the air against the Jets, Bills, Eagles, Saints, and Colts. Four of those five teams have yielded the 12th fewest passing TDs.
The Raiders offer a perfect storm of opportunity for a young QB with young, talented receivers.
- Passing touchdowns over 0.5
(-275) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-125) — DraftKings
Derek Carr Prop Bets
I expect the Raiders’ offense to run largely through Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Jacobs has 46 receptions for 363 yards. Adams is Adams. I like Carr’s odds of eclipsing his prop lines, especially if the Steelers jump out to an early lead. While the cold weather might be a slight hindrance, Carr has the resources to hit 250+ yards and two scores.
I also like that Carr finally has a healthy receiving corps, with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back in the fold. Also, he’s exceeded 230 passing yards in all but three contests, falling short against the Broncos, Saints, and Rams.
Surpassing 220 seems entirely doable, especially assuming a bounce-back performance for Adams.
- Passing yards over 220.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(+140) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(+100) — DraftKings
Davante Adams Prop Bets
And that brings us to Adams. The Rams and Patriots successfully contained him in Weeks 14 and 15. His combined receptions and yards in those two outings closely mirrored his per-game averages. In other words, he was dramatically held in check.
Pittsburgh’s middling pass defense should have more difficulty slowing him down. This is a must-win game. There will be no excuses if Carr can’t feed Adams for the third straight game.
I want to reiterate this: there is almost no realistic scenario where the Raiders utilize Adams as a secondary option. They acquired him this offseason for this type of game, period.
- Receiving yards over 72.5
(-115) — DraftKings