The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Baltimore Ravens on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Russell Wilson, QB
Pittsburgh’s trajectory is very concerning, and when pairing that with the direction of Baltimore’s defense, this is a team I’m actively avoiding.
In Weeks 1-9, the Ravens ranked 24th in pressure rate when not blitzing. I love targeting defenses like that as they are forced into being aggressive, and those are the spots in which fantasy points can be racked up in a major way.
Since then, however, Baltimore has ranked fifth in that metric and is clearly peaking. That’s not a deal breaker for some offenses, but given where Pittsburgh’s mess is heading, I’m out.
Wilson’s production vs. pressure over the past two months:
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 12-14: 120.7 (would lead the NFL)
- Passer rating when pressured, Weeks 15-18: 43.9 (worse than Kirk Cousins)
And guess what? The pressured spots are the highlight while the veteran QB has seen his production fall off a cliff across the board:
Wilson has cleared a dozen rushing yards in five straight games, but he’s averaging just 18.2 completions per game over that run; he’s not the type that can average more rushing yards (25.6 per game during that month) than completions and pay off for fantasy managers.
For me, this is a risk you don’t need to take — there are different ways to be different with a clearer path to a ceiling performance.
Jaylen Warren, RB
There are two teams on this slate that I want as little exposure to as possible, and the Steelers are the AFC’s representative on that list (the Packers from the NFC).
That said, if I’m going to flirt with someone on this roster, it’s Jaylen Warren. He’s caught all nine of his targets against the Ravens this season, carrying the ball 21 times for 89 yards. He produced over expectations in both contests, but it’s not the production that has me moderately sold, it’s how I see this game playing out.
Warren vs. Ravens, 2024:
- Week 11 win: 33.8% snap share
- Week 16 loss: 66.7% snap share
If you’re like me and most of the country and believe that Baltimore dictates just about everything in this game, Warren is the piece that stands to gain the most, tough I’m still not regularly clicking his name when building out Wild Card DFS lineups.
Najee Harris, RB
Nothing about the direction of Pittsburgh’s offense generates optimism; the deeper you dive, the worse it gets.
I addressed my concerns with the passing game earlier, but it’s possible that I’m more worried about Najee Harris and the state of this run game. He’s struggled in two career playoff games (53% production below expectations), and I don’t see that changing against the best run defense in terms of yards gained by running backs after contact per carry this season.
Harris struggled in the two games against Baltimore this season (he achieved under 80% of his expectations in both games), and that was without the Ravens being overly aggressive. Consider this:
- Harris against the Ravens: 77.8% gain rate and 40.7% loaded box percentage
- Harris in all other games: 81.4% gain rate and 48.3% loaded box percentage
That’s a pretty damning trend, and with Harris’ tank running on E, I’m in full-fade mode
- Weeks 6-14: 4.2% production over expectation and 4.0 red-zone touches per game
- Weeks 15-18: 16.8% production below expectations and 2.0 red-zone touches per game
The Ravens are heavily favored for a reason, which has me ranking Jaylen Warren as the Pittsburgh back to have rostered if you’re going to this backfield.
George Pickens, WR
Well, that was a performance. George Pickens was a disaster last week, posting the rare stat line that featured more catches than yards and more drops than both of those categories put together. For the season, he’s put nine balls on the ground. You could argue that number is higher depending on how stingy you want to be with your data tracking.
There are two ways to look at the Pickens case – I’ll present them and you can elect to choose your own adventure.
On one hand, he’s cleared 85 air yards in seven of his past eight games and is the clear top target in an offense for a team that is an 8.5/9.5-point underdog. He has two games back from injury and is facing a defense that is far more stingy on the ground than through the air.
On the other, he’s managed to turn 13 targets into just 50 yards after missing three straight games with a nagging hamstring injury. None of those 13 looks have come in the red zone and with Baltimore’s running game, Pittsburgh’s possession count could very much be kept in check.
I tend to side with the latter, though I will admit that a Pickens breakout week is far from impossible. We are looking at one of the hinge players for Wild Card weekend – whatever stance you make, I’d make it a strong one and let the chips fall where they may with the other pieces on your roster.
Mike Williams, WR
I just can’t shake this feeling that Mike Tomlin is going to use his voodoo magic to unlock Mike Williams at the perfect time. He did it in his debut with the team, but we’ve seen very little since (yet to reach a 43% snap share with the Steelers and that includes a three-game absence from George Pickens).
That said, since “vibes” aren’t how I build my fantasy rosters, I can’t responsibly recommend going in this direction. Williams has seen just 13 targets since joining the team. With those looks carrying a 19.5-yard aDOT with them, we aren’t exactly talking about the highest percentage of opportunities (though he has caught nine of them).
If you want to roll the dice on Williams, bet his longest reception prop when it pops up (sportsbooks didn’t include any lines on him when they released their opening numbers, something that should tell you all you need to know about the lack of stability in his role).
His vintage catch on the sideline last week is enough for me to maintain my thought that there is some “waiting for the right time” plan around using him, but there’s more risk than I’m willing to take on when it comes to building a DFS lineup this week when swinging and missing isn’t an option.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
It took Pat Freiermuth just 78 targets this season to haul in a career-high 65 passes, a level of efficiency that is very encouraging. Freiermuth’s path to mattering in DFS this week is through volume in a very conservative offense that will be designed to stay on the field and, thus, keep Lamar Jackson off of it.
There are some minor trends to like. The fact that Freiermuth has been targeted on 13 of his 49 playoff routes speaks to the comfort-food sort of role he assumes this time of year. Plus, he did catch every pass thrown his way against the Ravens during the regular season.
Of course, there are two sides of that coin. It took Freiermuth 58 routes to earn those five targets that produced just 30 yards (8.5% on-field target share, down from his 17.9% rate in all other games).
Pittsburgh’s 17 implied point total is a major concern and is why I’m not too interested in going in this direction in any format. I think you’re looking at 5-7 PPR points this week with limited win equity — that’s not going to cut it in any level of playoff fantasy competition.
