The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Russell Wilson, QB
In Weeks 14-15, Russell Wilson is averaging 9.9 yards per completion, a stretch in which George Pickens has been sidelined. Before his WR1’s injury, his average stood at 13.2.
I really do think it might be as simple as Pickens’ status (hamstring, DNP on Tuesday) when it comes to evaluating Wilson. In Week 11, we saw him fail in this matchup even with his top receiver at his disposal (205 passing yards with zero scores), a stat line that is certainly at risk of being repeated.
If Pickens clears all hurdles in advance of Saturday, Wilson will slide inside of my top 15 — but even in that instance, he’s not a must-start (I’ll have Bo Nix and Brock Purdy ranked ahead of him regardless).
Jaylen Warren, RB
In the Week 11 meeting with the Ravens, Jaylen Warren got his hands on the ball 13 times (68 yards). Could we see something like that this weekend, thus justifying a Flex ranking?
I’m not ruling it out, but we really don’t have much in the way of positive trends outside of that previous meeting. We know the touch count isn’t going to overwhelm as long as Najee Harris is active, and without scoring equity (one touchdown on 119 touches this season), there’s more risk than I’m willing to take on in what is traditionally a very low-scoring game.
I’d rather roll the dice on either back in Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, understanding that those committee situations have an unclear hierarchy and thus I can fall into a 15+ touch player.
Najee Harris, RB
The Ravens and Steelers play slug fests, and that is the type of ugly game that can work in Najee Harris’ favor in terms of raw volume. He didn’t have much success running the ball in the first meeting (18 carries for 63 yards), and that’s to be expected against the second-best run defense in terms of success rate. However, he was able to get home with seven PPR points as a pass catcher.
I worry that the role in the passing game can be fleeting (one target over the past two weeks), but those concerns are lessened if George Pickens is back and threatening this vulnerable secondary deep down the field.
Jaylen Warren has yet to see his role expand in a prohibitive way, so I think you can feel fine about letting it ride with Harris as an RB2.
George Pickens, WR
George Pickens (Grade 2 hamstring injury) missed the first game of his career in Week 13, and his absence extended through last weekend.
The upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better), but we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting Week 15 if a compromised version of him is trying to play.
Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.
There are various injuries peppering the board this week, many of which I’m happy to avoid altogether — this is not one of those spots. Back in Week 11 when these teams first met, Pickens finished with an 8-89-0 line and earned 37.5% of the targets.
We’ve seen him kill AFC North foes in the past (past 12 divisional games: 41.5% production over expectation), and I’m going to be making excuses to play him if we get anything close to optimism as kickoff nears.
Stay tuned.
Mike Williams, WR
I can’t imagine a better run out for Mike Williams in Pittsburgh. He made a big play in his debut with the team to showcase his raw ability and then had some time to acclimate before George Pickens went down with an injury.
With a month to get used to the system, Williams would surely smash with his ideal role opening up in an offense that features deep balls just often enough to keep defenses honest.
Right? Wrong.
Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
- Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles: 36.6%
In Pickens’ absence, Williams has managed to turn six targets into just 51 scoreless yards. Even without their alpha receiver and a passing script, Williams finished Week 15 with a sub-10% target share.
Pittsburgh’s offense simply isn’t built for Williams, and that’s become obvious. Pickens will absorb all of the deep looks when active, and when he’s not, the Steelers’ offense goes into a shell (I’m going to keep betting unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion until we get a fully healthy Pickens). They had a 31-yard pass play last week, but it required a flea-flicker that was lucky to be caught.
Maybe Williams makes a play during a tight postseason game. Nothing would surprise me with Mike Tomlin, but holding onto Williams at this point in the fantasy season is asking for too much.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
Pat Freiermuth has scored in three straight games, the first Steelers tight end to do that since Heath Miller opened the 2012 campaign with three in a row. The touchdowns are buoying a profile that is otherwise underwhelming.
We are pretty comfortable in labeling the Bengals as one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If you remove that contest, Patty Football is averaging 29.8 receiving yards and 2.8 catches per game since Week 8.
That’s walking a very fine line, especially if the Steelers welcome George Pickens back this week. Freiermuth saw a pair of end-zone targets in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, bringing his season total up to two.
The recent fantasy points totals look better than the stat sheet suggests is wise to project. The Ravens are vulnerable through the air, but they are a top-10 defense in terms of YAC allowed, giving a player like Freiermuth one less path to making an impact.
Freiermuth currently is on the outside looking in at my top 12 at the position.
