The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Russell Wilson, QB
The Russell Wilson “moon balls” get a lot of attention, and they are fun, but over 39% of his attempts in all five of his starts have traveled less than five yards downfield (season rate: 45%), a style of play that introduces an awfully low floor for a veteran without elite support or high-end rushing abilities.
Wilson has been held under 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games, and he’s only a bomb or two away from the bottom completely falling out.
Those are long-term concerns. I’m not comfortable entering the fantasy playoffs banking on Wilson, but I’m just fine going into Week 13 with that being the case. This season, 10.1% of deep passes thrown against the Bengals result in a touchdown, and if Wilson can hit on one (maybe even two?), he’s going to have a chance to finish as a QB1 this week, even with all 32 teams in action.
I suspect he’ll be a popular DFS play this week, and I don’t think that’s necessarily wrong — just be careful in assuming that any production put up this weekend is predictive of what to do as we navigate December.
Jaylen Warren, RB
Jaylen Warren played a season-high 56.7% of the snaps against the Browns and upped his season rate in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards to 34.7%. With Najee Harris’ production fading, could Warren finally be given the work we’ve been begging for at the exact right time?
I loved that he cashed in a three-yard touchdown last week, and the upcoming schedule figures to put pressure on this offense to throw more than they want.
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
That’s the type of schedule that favors Warren over Harris. I have the two ranked next to each other for the rest of the season, both in the Flex tier, a damning move given the edge in volume Harris currently holds.
There’s always a risk involved with a player whose 14 touches last week feel closer to a projectable touch ceiling, and I don’t think that is going to change this weekend or moving forward. That said, if the recent trends are sustained, Warren is positioned to be the most valuable member of this backfield down the stretch.
Najee Harris, RB
We entered this season with concerns about Najee Harris’ efficiency, and we fell for it. You and me both. We fell for three strong weeks, and I’m disappointed in us as a collective.
- Weeks 6-8: 25.2% over expectation, 16.7% stuff rate, and 20.4% explosive rate
- Weeks 10-12: 26.8% under expectation, 29.1% stuff rate, and 9.1% explosive rate
That’s not to say that he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups. I still believe in the trajectory of this offense as a whole, and Harris finishing with at least 18 touches in five straight games holds significant value this time of year, but I think the week-winning upside that we had some access to earlier is gone.
The Bengals are a vulnerable defense as a whole, but running backs have produced 10.5% under expectations against them this season; with them coming off a bye, they figure to be as fresh as a team can be this time of year.
Proceed with caution, both for Week 13 and the rest of the way.
George Pickens, WR
After clearing 16 PPR points in three of four games, George Pickens fell flat in the elements against the Browns on Thursday night, turning seven targets into just 8.8 points.
I’m not worried.
The Steelers continued to take shots to him (Week 12: 20.6 aDOT) and that is where he is going to produce when not playing in a borderline blizzard. We saw him haul in one of those deep passes (31-yard juggling reception) and if there isn’t some sort of miscommunication and/or an off-target throw in the end zone, fantasy managers would have left last week feeling very different.
How many times do you think a receiver has cleared 17 PPR points against the Bengals this season?
That number sits at 11 through 11 games. That number is enough to play Pickens with confidence without context, but let’s highlight some of the names on that list.
- Diontae Johnson (Week 4): 21.3 PPR points
- Tylan Wallace (Week 10): 20.5
- Xavier Legette (Week 4): 19.6
- Cedric Tillman (Week 7): 18.1
- Rashod Bateman (Week 10): 17.4
It hasn’t just been the upper tier of receivers that have taken full advantage of this vulnerable secondary – anyone on the field has a chance. Russell Wilson has made it clear that he trusts Pickens in a major way and that gives him the potential to return WR1 value this weekend.
Mike Williams, WR
On paper, Mike Williams makes a lot of sense for this offense, and maybe he will acclimate with time. But we are in the business of building a winning roster for Week 13. Despite the plus matchup, it’s impossible to call Flexing Williams anything more than a prayer.
Williams’ snap shares with Pittsburgh:
- Week 10 at Washington Commanders: 12%
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
He’s seen one target as a Steeler, and of course, it was a 32-yard score. Pittsburgh was playing the long game when they acquired the deep threat, and we don’t have that luxury right now. Williams can be stashed in deep roster situations, but if you’re chasing a playoff berth, he’s not the type of player that needs to remain rostered.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
We entered Week 12 with concerns about Darnell Washington’s upward trending snap share, but Pat Freiermuth clearly has Russell Wilson’s trust, which resulted in a respectable four-catch, 59-yard outing against the Browns in the snow last Thursday night.
Freiermuth has caught 35 of 40 targets this season (13 of 14 from Russell Wilson), and I was encouraged by the Steelers experimenting with working him down the field a bit in Week 12. It’s a tiny sample, and I’m not adjusting my per-target upside projection, though it was good to see him haul in a pair of passes thrown 10+ yards downfield (he had one such catch in his previous five games).
With the bye behind him and a net positive matchup grade over the next month, I have Freiermuth penciled in as a fringe TE1, just ahead of the streamer tier, and a player you can hold onto.
