The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-4 with an +18 turnover differential (tied for first). Some combination of Mike Tomlin “devil” magic, a stout defense, and an offense that doesn’t turn it over has put them in prime position to host a playoff game and potentially do some damage.
The Baltimore Ravens have seen nothing but excellence from the duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, the loss of Mike Macdonald and defensive regression currently has them as the No. 5 seed. This game against their divisional rival is an absolute must-win scenario if they want to get a home Wild Card game.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -7 - Moneyline
Ravens (-305); Steelers (+245) - Over/Under
44.5 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium
Steelers vs. Ravens Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Ravens have the No. 2-ranked offense in EPA (expected points added) and the No. 1 offense in success rate. One of the more impressive things about this offense is its ability to create positive plays. They have the fifth-fewest amount of EPA lost to turnovers, and the third-fewest amount of of EPA lost to sacks.
Much of this is strictly because Jackson is such a special player. Baltimore’s offense has the second-longest time to throw at 3.26 seconds and yet the Ravens have allowed a sack rate of 5.2% (fifth lowest). The offensive line adds to this as well, ranking second in quick pressure rate allowed and eighth in PFF’s pass-blocking grade. This has been quite a surprise to most players, as the interior offensive line is young, new, and had low expectations to start the season.
On top of the limited negative plays, they also create explosives better than anyone. They rank fourth in passes of 20 or more yards and first in rushes of 10 or more yards. The Steelers’ defense matches that skill in the run game (fourth-fewest rushes of 10 or more yards allowed) but ranks 18th in passes of 20 or more yards given up.
Offensively, the Steelers rank 19th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate. The offense also does well with explosives, ranking seventh and 11th in passing and rushing explosive play rate, respectively. This will be a huge advantage in the passing game but not the rushing game. Baltimore ranks 30th in passes of 20 or more yards given up but first in rushes of 10 or more yards given up.
Overall, the main difference-maker in the 18-16 Steelers win over the Ravens was uncharacteristic turnovers from Baltimore and poor special-teams play. The Ravens have had one or fewer turnovers in every game played this season outside of the Pittsburgh game, where they had three.
While the Steelers are admittedly fantastic at forcing turnovers, it would require a lot of luck for a three-turnover game to happen again against the Ravens. Furthermore, of the 450 games played this season, only four teams had a worse special-teams EPA than the Ravens did against the Steelers. Yet, they still only lost by two points.
My pick: Ravens ML (-305)
While I generally don’t advocate taking a team at -305, the spread of -7 is a bit rich for me. Although I think the Ravens are more than capable of covering, the only loss of more than seven for the Steelers came last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. With that being said, all four Steelers losses saw less than 44 points scored, with an average of 41.125 points.
Alternate Picks: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110); Ravens -7 (-110)