Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 16.
We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to. Note that all stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday)
Denver Broncos
Team: The Chargers beat the Broncos in Week 6. Since then, their only setbacks have come on the road against Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
QB: Is Bo Nix hitting a rookie wall despite the team’s success? His QB+ has been trending in the wrong direction lately. Here is how his recent results stack up with those of his classmates since Drake Maye made his NFL debut.
Offense: For the first time this season, the Broncos have scored at least three offensive touchdowns in consecutive games.
Defense: Denver’s defense has allowed just five touchdowns on 15 red zone trips over their past five games.
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton was shut out on 28 routes against the Saints in Week 7 – he has at least six catches or a touchdown in every game since.
Betting: The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six short rest games as an underdog.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: The Chargers have scored exactly 17 points in three straight games, the sixth time that has happened since the beginning of 2000 – none of the previous instances reached a fourth straight game.
QB: In Weeks 11-15, Justin Herbert’s average depth of throw is 10.0 yards (Weeks 1-10: 8.0).
Offense: On Sunday against the Buccaneers, the Chargers failed to pick up a single third down (six attempts) — it was just the second such instance for this franchise over the past decade (the other instance was Week 14, 2023, vs. Denver).
Defense: Los Angeles has been struggling to get off the field recently compared to the standard they set prior. Over their past two games, they’ve allowed the opposition to pick up 56.7% of third downs (Weeks 6-13: 30.2%).
Fantasy: Ladd McConkey is pacing for 1,074 receiving yards. He looks likely to become the third Charger with 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie and has every chance to top Keenan Allen’s franchise rookie record (1,046).
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in both short-rest Charger games this season, a change of pace after overs were 8-2-1 in such sports from 2018-23.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, 1:00p)
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have won six games this season with under 25 points scored — one more, and they’d match their most such games in a season during the 2000s (the 2016 team won seven such games).
QB: C.J. Stroud’s passer rating when throwing deep is 42 points lower this season than last.
Offense: This offense benefited greatly from starting field position – their average possession start was on their own 40.2-yard line (their third-highest mark of the season and their highest in a home game).
Defense: Houston held Miami to 24.0 yards per drive over the weekend, the sixth time this season in which they’ve allowed under 25 yards per drive – other explosive offenses on that list include Detroit (24.3) and Buffalo (22.6).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon has a rushing touchdown or at least five targets in all 11 of his games this season.
Betting: Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games played with a kickoff temperature under 60 degrees.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: In Weeks 10-15, the Chiefs won four games with no more than 21 points scored – more such wins than they had in any SEASON prior with Patrick Mahomes under center.
QB: Prior to the injury, Patrick Mahomes was just 3 of 8 against the blitz against the Browns (37.5% complete, his worst game of the season with at least five passes thrown in such spots).
Offense: Sunday was the first time since Week 17, 2020 (vs. Chargers) in which the Chiefs didn’t have a made field goal or a turnover.
Defense: Bend-don’t-break. The Chiefs have allowed just four touchdowns on 10 opponent trips to the red zone over their past four games.
Fantasy: Travis Kelce scored twice in Week 15, 2021, against the Chargers – he hasn’t caught a touchdown in December since.
Betting: Since 2022, unders are 8-1 when the Chiefs play on short rest (2-0 this season, with those two games going under the cumulative total by 19 points).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday, 4:30p)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are 2-2 over their past four games, with 103 points scored and 103 points allowed.
QB: In Weeks 14-15, Russell Wilson is averaging 9.9 yards per completion, a stretch in which George Pickens has been sidelined. Prior to his WR1’s injury, his average stood at 13.2.
Offense: Sunday was the first time the Steelers punted on the majority of their drives (five of nine) since Week 2 at Denver.
Defense: Pittsburgh allowed Philadelphia to convert 10-of-17 third downs, a 58.8% rate that was their second-worst defensive effort of the season. They are 0-3 when allowing teams to pick up over 50% of their third downs and 10-1 otherwise.
Fantasy: George Pickens has produced 41.5% more PPR points than expected in his past 12 games against divisional opponents.
Betting: The Steelers have covered seven straight divisional games played in Week 16 or later, including three outright wins in Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Lamar Jackson earned his fourth ‘A’ by way of our QB+ grading system, tying him for the most such games in a season on file (since 2019).
QB: Jackson completed 13-of-14 passes for 162 yards and three scores in the first half – making him responsible for three of the top-8 first-half passer ratings across the NFL this season.
Offense: Mark Andrews sets the franchise record for career touchdowns (48, tipping Jamal Lewis).
Defense: Baltimore has split their past four games, but the defense is trending in the right spot in terms of third down stops – over that stretch, opponents have converted just 27.8% of third downs (first 10 weeks: 46.7%)
Fantasy: Rashod Bateman’s average touchdown reception length for his career is 30.5 yards.
Betting: Overs are 8-3 in Baltimore’s past 11 home games (they are only 4-6-1 ATS in those contests).
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
New York Giants
Team: The Giants have scored 25 points in their past two games, but they have allowed 26.5 points per game since their Week 11 bye.
QB: As a collective, the Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per pass. That puts them on track to post the fourth worst rate over the past decade – but only the third worst since the beginning of last season (2023 Panthers: 5.5, 2023 Jets: 5.6).
Offense: New York’s average starting field position on Sunday was their own 20-yard line – their worst of the season and the third lowest mark in the NFL this year.
Defense: New York allowed Baltimore to pick up nine-of-11 third downs last week, the highest rate the Giants have allowed in a game during the 2000s. They’ve allowed a rate over 70% in four games over that stretch, all coming in the final month of the season and two coming against the Ravens (also: Week 16, 2020).
Fantasy: Despite being targeted 10+ times in six of his past seven games, Malik Nabers hasn’t had a 100-yard game since September.
Betting: The Giants have covered three of their past four December road games.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Atlanta needed the win, but they failed to score 21 points in their fourth straight road game (and it hasn’t been a weather issue — three of those games have been indoors).
QB: Kirk Cousins has matched a career-high for consecutive games with an interception (five). Twice since 2000, a Falcon has thrown a pick in six straight games (Doug Johnson in 2003 and Matt Ryan in 2009).
Offense: The Falcons have scored in seven of their past eight quarters — they may not be putting up huge numbers, but they are getting on the board consistently.
Defense: Atlanta has held its opponent to under one point per possession twice this season, both times in December (Weeks 13 and 15).
Fantasy: Drake London’s second-quarter touchdown catch was, in terms of air yards, the longest scoring grab of his career.
Betting: Unders had cashed in 10 straight Falcon short rest games prior to the Week 5 meeting with the Bucs, a 36-30 win (44-point closing total).
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots now have 11 losses — the same number they finished the 2000 season with. They beat the Bengals that season and then went on to win three Super Bowls in four seasons. They opened this season with a win over Cincinnati…
QB: Drake Maye had 2.73 seconds, on average, to throw in Arizona on Sunday, his second-lowest mark this season (third lowest by a Patriot QB).
Offense: The Patriots’ top-3 yards per drive games have all come over the past month.
Defense: New England has dropped four straight, and in all four of those games, they’ve allowed three touchdowns on four red zone trips. On Sunday, they also allowed the Cardinals to pick up 66.7% of their third downs, tying their worst showing this season in that regard (also: Week 3 at Jets).
Fantasy: Drake Maye has over 2.5 fantasy points as a runner with over 200 passing yards in four straight games.
Betting: New England is 4-9 ATS in their past 13 AFC East games (1-4 ATS over their past five).
Buffalo Bills
Team: Tyler Bass missed a 24-yard field goal on Sunday, the first miss on 78 such attempts (24 yards or shorter) this season,
QB: Josh Allen, on Sunday in Detroit, became the first player in NFL history with multiple pass TDs and multiple rush TDs in consecutive games
Offense: Buffalo is the first team to score 90 points over a two-game span on the road since the 2019 Ravens.
Defense: Over the past two weeks, the Bills have scored 90 points and allowed 86, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that opponents are four-of-four on fourth downs (season prior: 10-of-24) and 10-of-11 in the red zone (season prior: 21-of-42).
Fantasy: Josh Allen and James Cook each recorded two rushing TDs on Sunday. It’s the fourth time in Bills history that they’ve had a duo score multiple rushing in a single game.
Betting: Overs are 5-1 in Buffalo’s past six home divisional games (2-0 when facing the Patriots).
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions haven’t lost consecutive games since snapping a five-game skid in Week 9, 2022.
QB: Jared Goff completed a season-high six deep passes in the loss to the Bills for 167 yards (three games prior: seven deep completions for 150 yards).
Offense: Sunday was Detroit’s first game without a field goal made since September and the third time this season in which they’ve scored a touchdown on the majority of their drives.
Defense: In Weeks 1-14, the Lions allowed one red zone touchdown for every 2.65 third-down conversions — on Sunday against the Bills, they allowed five of each.
Fantasy: Amon-Ra St. Brown is five catches away from joining Larry Fitzgerald as the only player with multiple seasons with 100 catches and 10 touchdowns within their first four NFL seasons.
Betting: The Lions have covered eight of their past nine road divisional games (the exception? At Solider Field in Week 14 last season, a 28-13 loss as a three-point favorite).
Chicago Bears
Team: Up until the final play of Week 8, the Bears were in line to win four straight games with a +54 point differential over those games. Starting with the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, the Bears have been outscored by 92 points over their past seven games and one play
QB: Caleb Williams didn’t have a completion of 5+ air yards in the first half of Monday night’s game in Minnesota.
Offense: The Bears were held scoreless in the first half on Monday night, their third straight game going into the locker room without any points (53 points allowed in those first halves).
Defense: The Bears have allowed the opposition to pick up 50% of their third downs in consecutive games, something they didn’t do once in the first 13 weeks of this season.
Fantasy: Keenan Allen has caught four touchdown passes over his past four games, clearing 70 yards in three of those contests.
Betting: The Bears have failed to cover each of their past three home games played on short rest, one of which came against a Super Bowl hopeful in convincing fashion (Week 16, 2022 vs. BUF: 35-13 loss as an eight-point underdog).
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Team: Through 15 weeks, the Browns have seven losses by multiple possessions — their third-most such results prior to Week 16 since 2010.
QB: Through six weeks, 51 players had more pass attempts than Jameis Winston – through 15 weeks, he is the only player with three games of three interceptions.
Offense: The Winston experience is moving in the wrong direction. It’s been a tough run of matchups, but the trends are unkind:
- Week 12 vs. Steelers: 2.4 points per drive
- Week 13 at Broncos: 2.1 points per drive
- Week 14 at Steelers: 1.2 points per drive
- Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 0.5 points per drive
Defense: The Browns are forcing a turnover on just 5.8% of drives this season, essentially half of their mark from a season ago (11.7%). As a result, they are allowing 33.8% more points per drive this season than last.
Fantasy: Jerry Jeudy has cleared 1,000 yards for the first time in his career – he has a touchdown or 70+ receiving yards in seven straight.
Betting: The Browns are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 road divisional games (1-4 ATS in Cincinnati over that stretch).
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: In Week 7, the Bengals played the Browns, fresh off of a 10-point win and two weeks removed from a divisional loss in which they scored 38 points. They get the Browns this week after bearing the Titans by 10 points and three weeks removed from losing 44-38 to the Steelers.
QB: Joe Burrow ties the NFL record for consecutive games with 250+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs (six, matching Drew Brees and Tom Brady).
Offense: Sunday was the sixth time that the Bengals scored on at least half of their drives (they improved to 3-3 in such games).
Defense: For the second time in three weeks, the Bengals had an opponent average depth of throw under 5.5 yards. Through 12 weeks, they had an opponent aDOT under 6.4 yards just once.
Fantasy: Tee Higgins has nine touchdown catches in his past 12 regular season games (6+ touchdown catches in four of his five NFL seasons).
Betting: Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS over their past six home divisional games.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Team: For the third time in 15 weeks, the Titans have lost three straight games (Weeks 1-3, Weeks 6-8, and now Weeks 13-15).
QB: Will Levis threw a pressured touchdown pass in the second quarter of Week 1’s loss to the Bears – he hasn’t thrown such a score since.
Offense: On Sunday against Cincinnati, 10 of Tennessee’s 11 drives either resulted in a touchdown (four) or a turnover (six). That 90.9% rate is the highest single-game mark of the 2000s (topping a five-way tie at 87.5%, most recently done by the Bills in their Wild Card win over the Patriots in the 2021 season).
Defense: The Titans allowed the Bengals to score 3.33 points per drive on Sunday, the fifth time this year they’ve allowed a team to reach the 3.0 points per drive threshold.
Fantasy: In Tony Pollard’s past seven games, he’s either failed to clear 45 rushing yards or gone over 100.
Betting: Unders are 5-2 in Tennessee’s past seven divisional games played on the road.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball before finishing what would have been a 41-yard touchdown and put the Colts up 20-6 through 32 minutes and 17 seconds. They were outscored 24-0 in the remaining 27 minutes and 43 seconds.
QB: In theory, the first half is largely scripted and should result in confident throws. In theory:
FOUR times this season has a QB thrown at least 13 passes in the first half and failed to complete more than one-third of them …
Anthony Richardson (Week 7)
Anthony Richardson (Week 8)
Drew Lock (Week 14)
Anthony Richardson (Week 15)— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 15, 2024
Offense: In Richardson’s 10 starts, the Colts have scored on 20% or fewer of their offensive drives three times (20% on Sunday in Denver) while scoring on over 44% of their possessions four times (as recently as Week 13 in New England).
Defense: The Colts weren’t given a chance on Sunday. The Broncos’ average starting field position was the 43-yard line (Indianapolis’ average opponent starting field position through the first 14 weeks of this season: 31.1).
Fantasy: Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy profile has changed this season in a major way. He has sacrificed target share (his on-field rate is down from 27.5% last season to 22.8% this year) for an increase in depth (8.1 up to 11.1). It hasn’t worked – he’s turned 27 deep targets into just 28.3 PPR points.
Betting: Overs are 11-5 in Indianapolis’ last 16 home games.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Los Angeles has won all four of their road games since the loss in Chicago back in Week 4, winning each of those games by a single possession.
QB: Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat).
In Week 14, Brock Purdy had his best QB+ score of the season. In Week 15 vs the Rams?
➡️ His worst score this season (64.3)
➡️ His worst score in 35 career games
This comes just a few short weeks after what is now his second-lowest score of the season in Week 12. pic.twitter.com/2EqMoYK4uR
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 13, 2024
Offense: Los Angeles has converted eight-of-nine fourth down attempts over their past eight games after opening the season six-of-12.
Defense: The Rams forced a punt on 63.6% of 49er drives last week, the first time Los Angeles has posted a rate over 50% this season.
Fantasy: Puka Nacua had a historic rookie season – he’s averaging 6.1% more PPR fantasy points per target this season than last!
Betting: The Rams have covered six of eight games after opening the season 1-5 ATS.
New York Jets
Team: The Jets have scored 106 points over their past four games (previous six games: 101).
QB: Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least 187 yards in consecutive second halves – this coming on the heels of three straight games in which he failed to reach that total.
Offense: Instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:
- Davante Adams Sunday vs. the Jaguars
- Ja’Marr Chase Week 10 vs. the Ravens
- Tyreek Hill 2020 vs. the Bucs
- Odell Beckham Jr. 2016 vs. the Ravens
Defense: The Jets allowed the Jaguars to pick up eight third downs on Sunday, the most New York has allowed in a game this season (15 attempts).
Fantasy: With Davante Adams breaking out, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7).
Betting: New York is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games (four of those losses came outright as a favorite).
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles opened last season with a 10-1 run in which they averaged 2.53 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 29.4% of drives. During their current 10-game win streak, they are putting 2.60 points on the board per drive (31.2% TD rate).
QB: Jalen Hurts completed 22-of-26 passes from within the pocket on Sunday (84.6%, his best mark since going 18-of-20 against the Falcons in Week 2).
Offense: In Weeks 1-10, Philadelphia didn’t have a single game in which they converted 55% of their third downs – they’ve now done so in four of five (10-of-17, 58.8%, on Sunday against Pittsburgh).
Defense: Sunday was the ninth time this season in which Philadelphia didn’t allow their opponent to pick up more than 30% of their third downs.
Fantasy: No one is complaining, but after consecutive games with both a 30+ yard rush and catch, Saquon Barkley doesn’t have a run gaining more than 25 yards or a catch picking up more than five in three straight.
Betting: The Eagles lost 33-16 in Tampa Bay as a one-point favorite in Week 4 – they’ve covered all five of their road games since, beating the spread by at least eight points in each of those contests.
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington games have seen 51 points scored in the final minute of regulation this season (3.64 per game). That puts them on pace to top the 2012 Lions for the most such points in a season during the 2000s (the Commanders have seen 51 such points scored, those Lions saw 57 in 16 games, 3.56).
QB: Over his past four games, Jayden Daniels is 11-of-13 with seven touchdowns when throwing inside of the red zone.
Offense: Terry McLaurin became the first Washington receiver with a double-digit touchdown season since Gary Clark (1991). His 10th TD catch came on his 84th target of the season (previous two seasons: nine touchdown grabs on 252 targets).
Defense: The Commanders have allowed multiple offensive touchdowns and multiple FGM in four straight games (prior to this run: three such games).
Fantasy: Daniels leads the league with six games this season with at least 30 passes and seven rush attempts.
Betting: In Washington’s past three home games, sportsbooks have projected a total of 135 points — 176 points have been scored in those games.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Since Week 3, the Cardinals are 3-0 against the AFC East (29.7 PPG) and 3-6 against the rest of the NFL (17.3 PPG).
QB: The Cardinals improved to 6-1 this season when Kyler Murray completes a pass that gains more than 30 yards (1-6 otherwise).
Offense: Arizona converted 10-of-15 third downs against New England on Sunday, following a two-game stretch in which they converted just nine-of-25 opportunities.
Defense: The Lions scored a touchdown on both red zone trips against the Cardinals in Week 3 – that was the last time a team converted all of their red zone drives into TDs against this defense (past six games: seven-of-18).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr. has 28 catches for 349 yards and three touchdowns in quarters 2-4 this season. If you extend those 42 quarters for a full season – 46 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns. That’s essentially the stat line Chris Godwin posted in seven games this season before his season ended (50-576-5).
Betting: Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games (most recent: 23-22 loss to the Vikings as a 3.5-point underdog).
Carolina Panthers
Team: The Panthers missed a chance on Sunday to end one of the more odd trends in recent memory – we are now over 1,180 days (that’s the number as of Monday) since the last time Carolina won a game as an outright favorite.
QB: The 83-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker under duress was good to see, but on 14 other pressured dropbacks against Dallas, Bryce Young produced one (1) passing yard.
Offense: After showing some signs of growth over the month prior, the Panthers picked up just 27.3% of their third downs (three-of-11) on Sunday against the Cowboys, their worst rate since Week 5.
Defense: Carolina has allowed a touchdown on seven-of-eight red zone trips over their past two games (previous three: five-of-13).
Fantasy: Chuba Hubbard is one touchdown away from joining Christian McCaffrey as the only Panther RB since 2010 with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 total scores in a season.
Betting: From Weeks 4-8, Carolina was 0-5 ATS. From Weeks 9-14, they were 5-0. After failing to cover on Sunday, is another run of underachieving awaiting?
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Minnesota Vikings
Team: Minnesota has won their past two games by a total of 39 points — their first five wins during this streak came by a total of 27 points.
QB: For the first time this season, Sam Darnold failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in a true home game (and it came in his highest attempt effort of the season).
Offense: The Vikings picked up third-and-10 (or more) three times in the first half on Monday night against the Bears, the first time they’ve done that since Week 3, 2012 (vs. 49ers).
Defense: One week after allowing the Falcons to pick up 53.8% of third downs (their worst defensive showing of the season), the Vikings posted their best mark of 2024 against the Bears on Monday night (one-of-12, 8.3%).
Fantasy: Darnold was intercepted in the second quarter on a fourth down pass that the Bears didn’t have a chance to advance — Chicago would have gained more from letting the pass fall incomplete, but instead, they made a play that added two (in most scoring formats) to their total and subtracted two from that of Darnold.
Betting: Overs are 11-1 in Minnesota’s past 12 games played on short rest.
Seattle Seahawks
Team: Seattle has a pair of NFC North games over the next two weeks. This season, they are 0-2 against the North (-30 point differential) and 8-4 against the rest of the NFL (+32 point differential).
QB: Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are tied for the most end zone interceptions thrown this season with four – Smith had three in his career prior to this year.
Offense: The Seahawks scored a touchdown on just one-of-12 drives during their loss to the Packers last week – their 8.3% TD rate being their loss of the season (they are 6-1 this season when finding paydirt on over 20% of their drives this season)
Defense: Sunday night against Green Bay was the third time this season that Seattle had a higher blitz rate (32.1% of dropbacks) than pressure rate (28.6%) and its third game without a sack.
Fantasy: DK Metcalf was on the field for 92.9% of Seattle’s snaps on Sunday night but saw just 27 air yards worth of targets, the second-lowest mark of his career.
Betting: Five of the first six Seahawk games this season went over the total, and the unders have been 6-2 since.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: It’s easy to remember the 52-6 loss in Detroit (Week 11), but that’s the only Jaguar game since Week 8 that has been decided by multiple possessions (five of those six games have been decided by fewer than six points).
QB: Mac Jones is 0-for-17 with five interceptions when throwing the ball more than 20 yards downfield this season.
Offense: Brian Thomas Jr. has four games of 5-85-1 as a rookie … the only other rookies to do that since 2016 are Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase
Defense: For the second time this season, the Jaguars have gone four straight games without forcing a turnover (also: Weeks 1-4).
Fantasy: QB Issues? What QB Issues? Thomas’ expected PPR points over his past five games: 4.7 – 11.9 – 18.0 – 20.6 – 26.1.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in five straight Jaguar games played indoors.
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: This is the Raiders’ first double-digit losing streak since they bridged the 2013 and 2014 seasons with 16 straight L’s.
QB: Desmond Ridder threw 11 passes in the first half — exactly none of them were in the direction of a receiver.
Offense: The Raiders failed to score in the third quarter on Monday night, the eighth time this season they’ve done that.
Defense: Maxx Crosby’s season came to an end before this game started, yet the Raiders held the Falcons to 30.8% on third downs, the first time Vegas has posted a sub-40% rate since Week 7.
Fantasy: The Vegas run game might be broken, but Ameer Abdullah has reached double figures in terms of PPR points as a pass catcher in three of his past five games.
Betting: The Raiders have covered five straight games played on short rest (remember that 63-21 win over the Chargers last season?).
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers
Team: San Francisco has lost four of five games – they averaged 4.5 losses per regular season over the two years prior.
QB: Seeing ghosts? Brock Purdy completed just nine-of-19 non-pressured passes on Thursday night, the worst rate of his career (47.4%)
QB: Brock Purdy’s completion percentage this season drops from 70.8% when Christian McCaffrey is on the field to 63.8% without the star tailback.
Offense: The 49ers’ touchdown rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this season (their points per drive are down 22.7%).
Defense: On Thursday night, San Francisco allowed Los Angeles to pick up just 26.7% of their third downs (four-of-15), their best defensive showing of the season.
Fantasy: Deebo Samuel Sr. has 10 career games with 20+ routes run and under seven PPR points – four of those instances have come in the past month.
Betting: The 49ers are 5-9 ATS this season, a drastic downturn after covering 58% of their games (fourth highest) over the previous three seasons.
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami needs to be perfect the rest of the way to extend their streak of winning seasons to five straight years.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa is now just 6-13during the Mike McDaniel era against teams with a winning record for the season.
Offense: The Dolphins have scored 52 points in their past three road games and 100 during their past three played at home.
Defense: Miami allowed 16.2 yards per drive to Houston last week, their best defensive showing of the season.
Fantasy: Jonnu Smith is the 6th tight end since 2016 with at least 70 catches and 6 TDs through 15 weeks. Of that list, only he and Travis Kelce were 29 years of age or older
Betting: Over tickets have come through in each of Miami’s past five home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs have now won four straight (+64 point differential) after losing four straight (-24 point differential).
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown 10 second-quarter interceptions this season, the most in the second stanza since Elvis Grbac chucked 11 in 2001.
Offense: In Weeks 1-11, the Bucs didn’t have a game in which they averaged 9.8+ yards per pass — they’ve done it in consecutive weeks and three times during their current four-game winning streak.
Defense: Tampa Bay has won four straight, and their third down defense has been trending in the right direction over that stretch:
- Week 12 at Giants: 45.5% of third downs converted
- Week 13 at Panthers: 37.5%
- Week 14 vs. Raiders: 30.8%
- Week 15 at Chargers: 0% (0-of-6)
Fantasy: Mike Evans vacuumed in 42.3% of the targets last week and now needs 83.7 receiving yards per game to close the season to again get to 1,000.
Betting: Tampa Bay is just 4-15 ATS in their past 19 primetime games.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: After winning three of 10 games to open the season, the Cowboys have won three of four (27+ points scored in each of those victories).
QB: On Sunday, Cooper Rush turned nine passes thrown 10+ yards downfield into three touchdowns – just two of his first 61 such attempts this season resulted in six points.
Offense: Rico Dowdle joins C.J. Anderson as the only undrafted player to run for 110 yards in three straight games since 2012.
Defense: Opponents have failed to pick up more than one-third of their third down attempts against Dallas in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: CeeDee Lamb has six games with at least a dozen targets this season – he joins 2023 CeeDee Lamb as the only Cowboy ever to do that in a season. He set the franchise record with seven such games a year ago.
Betting: Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their past five primetime games played inside of Jerry’s World.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (MNF)
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints, the same team that opened the season by scoring 47 points against the Panthers, have scored 47 points since their Week 12 bye.
QB: New Orleans had the hot start – since Week 3, they rank 24th in yards per pass, 26th in pass touchdown rate, and 30th in completion percentage.
Offense: On Sunday, Alvin Kamara joined Lenny Moore, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey as the only players with 25 receiving touchdowns and 50 rush touchdowns.
Defense: Despite posting their fourth-lowest blitz rate of the season on Sunday (13.3%), the Saints recorded their highest sack rate of 2024 (20.5%).
Fantasy: Kamara’s last run gaining more than 30 yards came during his six-touchdown effort against the Vikings on Christmas Day of 2020.
Betting: Unders are 15-1 in New Orleans’ last 16 games played on extended rest, going under by an average of 7.1 points)
Green Bay Packers
Team: As of Tuesday, we are more than 365 days removed from Green Bay’s last regular-season loss in the United States against a non-NFC North team.
QB: Jordan Love was intercepted three times when blitzed in his first three games this season – he’s been picked off on such a pass just twice since.
Offense: On Sunday night, the Packers had four first-half possessions — 15 first downs, 235 yards, and four scoring drives (20 points).
Defense: Matchup-based defense. Over the past three weeks, Green Bay has two sub-10% games (Week 13 vs. Miami and Sunday in Seattle) and a plus-30% game (32.6% in Detroit, easily their highest mark of the season)
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs had nine touches in the first six minutes on Sunday night, tying him for the most such touches in a game during the 2000s (others: Chris Ivory in Week 4, 2014, and Peyton Barber in Week 17, 2017).
Betting: The Packers failed to cover four straight games in the middle of the season (Weeks 7-11) but haven’t failed to cover a game since (3-0-1).