Is there any better feeling than starting your fantasy football week off by making the right lineup decision?
Yes. Yes, there is … starting your fantasy football season off by making the right call! The action kicks off tonight in a game with no shortage of question marks, so let’s take a look at who should be in and out of lineups!
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -5
Total: 52.5
Lions Team Implied Points: 24
Chiefs Team Implied Points: 28.5
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Many splits can be noisy, but it’s impossible to overlook the fact that Goff was QB3 last season in fantasy points scored at home and QB18 (behind Davis Mills) on the road. Of the 10 highest-scoring (QB fantasy points) outings against the Chiefs last season, eight featured that signal-caller running for over 15 yards.
In the 31 games Goff has played with the Lions, he has one game with more than 15 rushing yards. I don’t think it’s crazy to think he flirts with 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns like last season, but I’m not starting him in Week 1.
Goff’s PFN Week 1 Consensus Ranking: QB13
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his five Week 1 starts, racking up over 330 yards through the air in three of the past four. The dude is as good as it gets — sit back and enjoy the show.
Mahomes’ Week 1 Consensus Ranking: QB1
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs: The Lions’ backfield has different names than they did a year ago, but it could very well look the same with David Montgomery filling a version of the Jamaal Williams role and Gibbs debuting in the pseudo-D’Andre Swift spot.
That’s to say that the touch count could be similar, and Montgomery is the one who will need a score to prove worthy of a starting spot. Meanwhile, the rookie’s per-touch upside should be enough to pencil him in from the jump.
MORE: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions
Detroit was a committee from the get-go last season (four touches for Williams and three for Swift on the opening drive), and I’m expecting more of the same. In what I expect to be a high-scoring game, Gibbs cracks my top 15 at the position for his debut.
Gibbs’ Week 1 Consensus Ranking: RB13
David Montgomery: I do prefer Gibbs this week due to my projection for him to be the lead back in Detroit’s passing game, though Montgomery does have deeper Flex appeal in a matchup against 2022’s second-worst red-zone defense.
In my rankings, this is about where I expect this duo to settle weekly, and I have them combining for roughly 30 touches to open the season. Montgomery is hovering around RB30 for me this week, in the same tier as the aforementioned Swift.
Montgomery’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: RB24
Isiah Pacheco: I wasn’t shy this summer in my support for Pacheco as a strong value in the middle rounds. And while the hand/shoulder injuries that limited him in August are on my radar, I’m cautiously optimistic against a Lions team that was third worst against the run on a per-carry basis last season.
The Chiefs averaged nearly four red-zone trips per game during the Mahomes era, and that trend against this defense has Pacheco as a solid RB2 for me.
Pacheco’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: RB23
Jerick McKinnon: I personally think you may be getting a little cute if you’re slotting McKinnon into your season-long lineup to open the season.
Yes, the per-touch upside is intoxicating in a game that will almost certainly be among the highest scoring on the slate, and the Lions did allow the second-most yards per target to the RB position last season. But let’s not forget that, through October last season, McKinnon had one game with more than eight opportunities (rushes and targets).
If Pacheco’s shoulder is more of a concern than we are led to believe, then sure. But without knowledge that 10+ touches are in store, McKinnon’s a tough sell on a week where you have access to everyone on your roster. McKinnon checks in outside of my top 30 at the position.
McKinnon’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: RB37
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is a lineup lock for every game he plays this season. Did all six of his touchdowns come at home last season? Sure, but that’s a reason to like him more when playing indoors, not a legitimate case to downgrade him when playing outside.
St. Brown’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR4
Marvin Jones Jr.: The high total for this game is appealing with it being the first prime-time game of 2023. I get that. But while Jones could carve out a niche role, we can’t blindly assume that the 33-year-old has it right away. That said, stashing the veteran makes sense, given the type of games the Lions want to play and Jameson Williams’ suspension.
Jones’ Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR79
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Kadarius Toney: I have no doubt that I will have one of these receivers ranked very wrong by week’s end, but the fact that I have no idea which one that will be is why I have them ranked the way I do.
MVS is the piece of this WR room that I easily have the most exposure to, but his profile is one of risk/reward.
For me, Moore is the best bet to return weekly value with time. However, entering the season, you’re lying to yourself if you think you have a beat on this offense. Could Moore receive a nice target boost if Travis Kelce plays and/or is limited? He could, but he’s no lock to absorb those looks and thus still carries significant risk.
MORE: Week 1 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
I don’t have a Chiefs receiver inside my top 30 this week, and that scares me. But if I don’t have conviction as to which receiver is going to burn me for a low rank, why elevate one and risk it?
For those that weren’t locked in every second of this preseason, Rice impressed in making plays (14 catches in three games) and saw 79% of his yardage come after the catch. It’ll be a developmental situation, but the early signs were certainly encouraging.
The Lions intercepted deep passes at the fourth-lowest rate a season ago — one big reason why I will have DFS Captain exposure to MVS in the first slate of the regular season. If I had to roll the dice on one in a deeper annual league, give me Moore, hoping that he converts a high percentage of his targets into catches and thus comes with a reasonable floor.
MVS’ Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR62
Moore’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR40
Rice’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR71
Toney’s Week 1 Consensus Ranking: WR48
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: Kelce has scored in three straight season openers, and … well … he’s Travis Kelce. If he plays, you play him. End of story.
Editor’s Note: Kelce has been ruled OUT for TNF.
That said, he isn’t likely to play, and that puts Noah Gray in a position for an extended role. He’s not for me. There are the Juwan Johnsons of the world that are available in the majority of leagues that I much prefer to a player like Gray.
The TE position isn’t like the RB position in that you simply replace the player and maintain the role. Alexander Mattison received Dalvin Cook usage last season when called upon … not the case here. Gray is a decent player, but counting on more than five targets is risky. You’re better off making Kelce arrangements outside of K.C.’s TE room.
Kelce’s PFN Week 1 Consensus Ranking: TE1
Sam LaPorta: The “rookie tight ends rarely matter in fantasy football” is a narrative that has been proven accurate over time and, for the season, I’m sticking by it. That said, this week is unique in that we have Kelce potentially sitting out and fantasy managers scrambling.
If you drafted Kelce, you shouldn’t have a second tight end on your roster and are thus sifting through the waiver wire before the season even starts. Enter LaPorta, a talented rookie who very well could be second in command when it comes to target share among the pass catchers in this offense in a game with a projected total of 52.5 points.
He’s no safe bet for production, but expecting 6-8 targets is certainly reasonable, and that’s not easy to find on the wire at this position. LaPorta’s a fine plug-and-play for those in a tough spot, but not someone I’m starting in any other circumstance.
LaPorta’s PFN Week 1 Consensus Ranking: TE14
Who Should You Start in Fantasy Football?
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network?! It’s completely free to use and allows you to enter in up to six players to find the best player to plug into your starting lineup!
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches, which we’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity on.
Should You Start Amon-Ra St. Brown or Garrett Wilson?
There is no wrong answer here, but I do have St. Brown in my second tier at the position this week and Garrett Wilson as a part of Tier 3.
Both are must-starts, don’t get me wrong, but you need to consider game script when splitting hairs at this level. While St. Brown plays in a game that could fly past 50 total points, I’m not sure the Monday nighter gets to 45.
Also, at least in September, I skew the way of continuity. St. Brown will be catching balls from Goff for a third straight season, while Wilson has had Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback for roughly three months.
Should You Start David Montgomery or Raheem Mostert?
I prefer Raheem Mostert in this spot. Montgomery joins a Lions backfield that led the league in fantasy football points a year ago, but I view him as the Robin to Gibbs’ Batman. He’ll still get his looks, but enough to offset this primo spot for Mostert? I think not!
Mostert brings his 5.4 career yards-per-carry average into a game against a Chargers run defense that was the worst of this millennium a season ago.
Will they be better this year? They almost have to be, but with Jeff Wilson Jr. out, De’Von Achane banged up, and the Dolphins interested in keeping the Bolts’ offense off the field, Mostert is a must-play for me, while Montgomery is more of a fine Flex option.
Should You Start Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta?
This is where having alerts on your phone is a wonderful thing. You plug in Kelce and wait to see how the pre-game warmups go. If you’re not going to be around for that potential news, I’d save yourself the stress and plug in LaPorta to ensure you have a warm body starting. The moral of the story here is … if the Chiefs play Kelce, you play Kelce.
LaPorta is certainly on the TE streamers radar, but there are two options that I much prefer that are also sitting on waiver wires in the majority of leagues.