Following his trade to the Los Angeles Rams, what is the fantasy football outlook for Sony Michel in 2021? As an early-down back in a somewhat clear backfield, is there a path to touches that could lead Michel to outperform his ADP, or could we be in for another frustrating year for the Rams back?
Sony Michel’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Michel has had an up-and-down career despite being the No. 31 overall draft pick in 2018. While he did rush for back-to-back 900-plus-yard seasons, injuries derailed his 2020 campaign before it ever got off the ground.
Michel took advantage of the first three games last season with Damien Harris and James White out of the lineup. He rushed 26 times for an impressive 173 yards but scored just 1 touchdown. Then, the injuries hit. We didn’t see Michel hit the field again until Week 12 after battling a quad injury.
Over the final six games (35% snap share), Michel generated 53 carries for 276 yards while catching 5 of 6 targets for 91 yards and another score.
For fantasy, he finished as the RB61 in PPR and 47th in points per game (8.4). After seeing 16.9 and 16.6 opportunities per game in his first two seasons, respectively, Michel saw his opportunities slashed to 9.8 last year. The only positive was that he increased his efficiency per opportunity, going from 0.63 and 0.57 to 0.88 in 2020 (42nd amongst RBs).
Following the trade to Los Angeles, the opportunity for playing time is significantly higher. The Rams lost Cam Akers to a devastating injury earlier in the preseason. That left Darrell Henderson and a lot of question marks leading the Rams’ backfield. Could we now see Michel produce a similar performance in this offense to what we saw from another former-Georgia back under Sean McVay’s leadership?
Fantasy projection
Michel’s projections were extremely depressed in New England, but with the Rams, there is a tremendous potential ceiling here. Last season, Akers led the backfield with 145 carries, but as a rookie, he was always likely to be eased in. Michel is a one-year rental for the Rams, so we could see him utilized much more heavily.
However, the presence of Henderson does limit that ceiling a little bit. Especially when you consider Michel has never been used much as a receiving back. Michel has just 40 targets and 26 receptions in his career with the Patriots. In college, his best year receiving-wise was 26 receptions for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns. The potential is there, but we have yet to see it.
Immediate projections should see Michel in at least a 50-50 split at the running back position. Therefore, Michel could see around 140-150 carries for around 625 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Additionally, he could finish the year with around 10 receptions for 80-100 yards.
The positive is those numbers almost feel like a floor for Michel right now.
Sony Michel’s fantasy ADP
Prior to the trade, Michel has had an ADP of 235.5 in half PPR formats on Sleeper. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls to 250.8. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Michel is the RB122 with a 255.6 ADP. On Fleaflicker, his ADP was 210.8.
All of those numbers are set to rise following this trade. Michel could rise as high as the RB2-to-flex region of the draft.
Should you draft Sony Michel in 2021 for fantasy?
This trade changes things massively for Michel’s fantasy outlook. Prior to the trade, his ADP was so low that Michel was a draft and hope type option. Now, he has a legitimate opportunity to lead a backfield.
However, that increased potential role will mean an increased cost. Michel has frustrated fantasy owners before, and that cannot be forgotten. He has failed to produce with opportunity previously. Michel may have come from the same college as Todd Gurley, but he is not as talented, so expecting him to produce like Gurley in LA would be unwise.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.