After Week 3, there were murmurings in the fantasy football community that Derrick Henry might be on his way out. His usage dropped drastically, and we saw the share of rookie Tyjae Spears begin to creep up. In Week 3, Henry played 38% of snaps to Spears’ 56%. Sure, Henry still got most of the RB carries, but the subtle shift left managers wondering if we were standing on the Henry cliff that we have feared for so long.
Week 4 comforted managers slightly. Henry was back up to playing 59% of the snaps, even though Spears was still high at 53%. However, Henry got over 80% of the rushing attempts, and he turned that into 122 yards and one TD on the ground. He also caught one pass for 11 yards in the Titans’ win over the Bengals. Henry was RB6 this week, and he has one week outside the top 16 so far in 2023.
It is important to note that Tennessee had only one rushing attempt in the red zone on Sunday, and that went to Spears.
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Derrick Henry’s Rest-of-Season Fantasy Outlook
Henry has a few tougher matchups coming, as well as a bye week. The Titans play Indianapolis and Baltimore, have a bye, and then play Atlanta.
The good thing for Henry is that Tennessee will continue to run, they have the seventh-highest rush rate so far in 2023. Still, the bad thing is that the offense as a whole doesn’t look great. That, plus the transition of snap shares moving from Henry to Spears, signals what might be the changing of the guard.
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Henry always has the possibility of a game like he had in Week 4, but being a workhorse back, he needs to have more of the volume to get there. The week he finished as RB65, he only had 11 carries. Henry will be an RB1 this season, but gone are the days when he was a guaranteed top RB overall.
Should I Trade Henry?
With RBs, it is better to trade them a little too early than be left holding the bag. At almost 30 years old, Henry has been teetering on that “is this year he crashes” line for what feels like seasons now. Yet, he hasn’t finished a season lower than RB16 in the last six years. Unfortunately, he cannot do this forever, and we must accept as fantasy managers that the other shoe will drop sooner rather than later.
It will be hard to trade Henry if other managers see his decline, so if you want to move him, you might want to capitalize on his successful Week 4 before this run of tougher matchups and his bye. However, if you hang on to him, that playoff schedule is something special.
Remember that Henry could also not finish the season as a Titan. There is a world where, as the year progresses, Tennessee realizes they cannot compete to win in their division, and they have a fire sale and begin to look at the future. Trading Henry could give them some draft capital and possibly revamp Henry’s fantasy value as well, shipping him to a team with a more high-powered offense and playoff aspirations.
If I can move Henry right now, I am doing it.