The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Buccaneers hosting the Ravens. Tom Brady has not looked like the Tom Brady of years past. Should fantasy football managers start Brady on Thursday night?
Tom Brady’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Ravens
It’s been a year like no other for quarterbacks in fantasy football. Not since the great QB boom of 2011 have we seen the position undergo such a dramatic facelift.
Through seven weeks, the greatest quarterback of all time is averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game. By average points, he is the QB22. If this holds, it would be Brady’s worst season since he really became Tom Brady (which I classify as the arrival of Randy Moss in 2007, morphing Brady from game manager into game changer).
Interestingly enough, Brady’s 14.2 ppg in 2006 was good for a QB9 finish. Yet, in 2022, 15.2 ppg is completely untenable for a fantasy quarterback. It puts into perspective how much the game has changed over the years.
The matchup against the Ravens is difficult to evaluate. They’ve allowed 19.6 ppg to quarterbacks, the sixth-most in the league. While that seems favorable, six of the 11 passing touchdowns they allowed came from Tua Tagovailoa.
The Ravens have been solid defensively in their six other games. They haven’t faced many prolific quarterbacks. Other than Tua, the only real imposing ones they’ve faced are Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Allen posted his worst fantasy line of the season against the Ravens. Burrow posted his second-worst. These are quarterbacks consistently posting QB1 numbers. Brady has eclipsed 15 fantasy points just twice all season.
Tom Brady Is Off to the Worst Start of His Career
Brady has started seven games this season. At 277.4 passing yards per game, he’s not that far off from what we’ve come to expect. In fact, his career average is 266 per game. Although, that is slightly skewed by pre-2007 Brady, who averaged 226 passing yards per game.
Nevertheless, Brady’s issue isn’t passing volume — it’s efficiency. The completion percentage is fine — he’s just not throwing the ball downfield. Brady’s 6.6 yards per attempt rank 25th amongst qualified starting quarterbacks.
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From a fantasy perspective, touchdowns are the bread and butter of quarterback scoring. That’s even more pronounced in modern football when the quarterback has absolutely no rushing upside.
Brady has just one multi-touchdown game through seven weeks of this season. To put that in perspective, Brady, a man who had started 318 regular season games prior to this season, has never had a seven-game stretch with merely one multi-touchdown game in his career. We all should’ve been taking Brady lower than 1.5 passing touchdowns on Underdog Fantasy each week. Perhaps that will be a recommendation in this week’s article.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Brady?
Brady is still ranked as our QB11 on the week. The crazy part about this all is the fact that Brady’s ranking isn’t crazy. How is the QB22, who has consistently proven not to be a viable starting quarterback in fantasy, ranked as a QB1 on the week?
Unfortunately, outside of a handful of elite fantasy quarterbacks, everyone else is kind of the same. Guys like Marcus Mariota and both Saints quarterbacks have been better fantasy starts than Brady. But are you that confident in starting Mariota, Andy Dalton, or Jameis Winston over Brady? So, we rank Brady higher.
Do you feel great about Jimmy Garoppolo against the Rams? Or Russell Wilson against anyone? So, we rank Brady higher.
There are several quarterbacks ranked below Brady you can justify starting over him. However, it’s not like you look at any of them and think it’s ridiculous to have Brady higher. It’s just a very challenging position right now. Ultimately, Brady has earned the benefit of the doubt over his historically long career.
The last time I thought Brady was done was at age 37 in 2014. Since then, he’s made five Super Bowls and won four. Based on what we’ve seen in 2022, I think it’s over for Brady at age 45.
With that said, the Bucs are still loaded with talent. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette are one of the most talented groupings in the NFL. Even a possibly cooked Brady can stumble upon a multi-touchdown game. It has to happen eventually, right?
In most fantasy leagues, there are 20+ quarterbacks rostered. If you have someone like Daniel Jones or Jared Goff, I might consider him over Brady. Otherwise, unless you have one of the 10 quarterbacks ranked ahead of him, you probably have to start Brady against the Ravens.