The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Denver Broncos hosting the Indianapolis Colts. On the heels of Javonte Williams’ devastating ACL tear, the Broncos’ backfield is now left in the hands of Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone. What is Boone’s fantasy football value this week, and should you start him against the Colts on Thursday night?
Mike Boone’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Colts
Making lineup decisions on Thursday night is difficult as it is. Making lineup decisions regarding a backfield full of uncertainty is the epitome of challenging.
First, we need to review what we know. Then, we need to predict what we think will happen on Thursday.
Mike Boone Played Firmly Ahead of Melvin Gordon After Javonte Williams Went Down
Last week, Williams played just 24 snaps before he tore his ACL. Following Williams’ injury, I’m sure we all assumed Gordon would take over. Instead, it was Boone out there on the very next series.
MORE: Fantasy Implications of Javonte Williams Injury
Boone wound up playing 19 snaps. He ran 12 routes, saw three targets, and carried the ball three times. Compare that to Gordon, who played just 10 snaps, ran just five routes, saw just one target, and also had three carries. What we know is Boone was the clear lead back ahead of Gordon in Week 4.
Melvin Gordon Remains the Heavy Favorite To Be the Broncos’ RB1
Despite Boone playing ahead of Gordon last week, fantasy managers should assume Gordon will resume lead back duties on Thursday night. Prior to Boone taking over, Gordon committed his fourth fumble of the season. The Raiders returned it for a touchdown. It doesn’t take a significant leap to connect the dots here. Gordon was benched for fumbling.
Gordon is a 29-year-old veteran who has been with the Broncos for three years now. Per 9News’ Mike Klis, Broncos’ offensive coordinator Justin Outten said Gordon is “going to carry the load obviously.”
He didn’t exactly mince words here. We have no reason to doubt the veracity of this statement. Gordon will be the lead back, and this likely won’t be a 1a/1b situation. It will be Gordon as the starter and Boone as the backup.
Mike Boone Will Still Have a Role
With all that said, Boone isn’t going to just sit on the sidelines all game. At his age, Gordon is not about to play 75% of the snaps. Boone should mix in for at least a handful of carries and possibly operate as the primary passing down back.
There’s also a chance Gordon fumbles again and gets benched. Or perhaps Boone just plays really well during his chances and earns more work.
The Colts Are an Average Matchup for Running Backs
The Colts allow 22.5 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs, the 13th-most in the league. Most of that production is coming through receptions and touchdowns, though. The colts only allow 75 rushing yards per game.
Colts’ opponents have targeted the running back position 25% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. And Russell Wilson has thrown to running backs 29.6% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. If Boone is the third-down back, he could find himself with a decent target share.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Mike Boone?
Prior to yesterday, none of you considering this even had Boone on your roster. It’s entirely possible Boone ends up being a quality pickup and a startable fantasy asset. But you have to wait and see.
Boone isn’t even listed in our Week 4 running back rankings. That’s because he’s really not a viable start on a short week with an uncertain role that may amount to nothing more than a handful of touches.