The NFL seems committed to giving us higher quality Thursday night games this season. The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs bring with them a ton of fantasy football goodness. With that comes early lineup decisions. What is Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy value this week, and should you start him against the Chargers on Thursday night?
Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy outlook against the Chargers
It’s extremely rare that seventh-round rookies even make NFL rosters. Pacheco not only made the Chiefs’ roster, but he’s active on game days ahead of Ronald Jones. That alone confirms Pacheco is not without talent.
In Week 1, Pacheco led the Chiefs with 12 carries, which he turned into 62 yards and a touchdown. He was not targeted at all, though.
Plenty of fantasy managers out there put Pacheco on their bench at the end of fantasy drafts. Those managers didn’t start him in Week 1 — and perhaps watched as he outscored their RB1. Pacheco had more fantasy points than Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry.
How legitimate was Isiah Pacheco’s performance?
While you may have wished you started Pacheco last week, I must caution against chasing last week’s production. Pacheco undoubtedly ran well when on the field. The problem was when he got on the field.
For the first three quarters, it was Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon splitting snaps. Pacheco only got in the game sparingly. He carried the ball three times in the first three quarters.
Then, in the fourth quarter, Andy Reid gave Pacheco the privilege of milking away the clock with the Chiefs up by a million. A 23% snap share isn’t enough to justify starting a running back. When the vast majority of those snaps come in the fourth quarter of a blowout, it’s even more concerning.
Nine of Pacheco’s 12 carries, as well as his touchdown, came in the fourth quarter after the Chiefs pulled most of their starters.
Should fantasy managers start Isiah Pacheco?
The Raiders actually had a lot of success running the ball against the Chargers last week. Josh Jacobs carried the ball 10 times for 57 yards. The problem was the Raiders fell behind and were forced to play catch up. That led to Derek Carr attempting 37 passes against just 13 total rush attempts for the Raiders.
The Chiefs will probably not find themselves in a position where they need to go into full-on chuck mode. This should be a competitive contest throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised if neither team led by more than 10 points.
As a result, Pacheco’s involvement is likely to be limited. I’m expecting a sub-15% snap share from the Chiefs’ RB3. There simply won’t be enough volume for Pacheco to provide any sort of startable value for fantasy managers. And that is likely to remain the case unless CEH or McKinnon sustains an injury.
Pacheco currently sits at RB55 in our Week 2 running back rankings, putting him firmly outside RB4 range. Even in deep leagues, fantasy managers should not need to be starting RB5s in Week 2 (or really, ever). Do not start Pacheco on Thursday night against the Chargers.