The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Carolina Panthers hosting the Atlanta Falcons.
Drake London was one of my favorite draft targets this season, but his been woefully disappointing for two months now. Should fantasy football managers expect anything on Thursday night against the Panthers?
Drake London’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Panthers
I felt really good about targeting London in so many leagues after his stellar start to the season. London scored a total of 51.4 PPR fantasy points over the first three weeks of the season combined. Since then, he’s scored 30.5 fantasy points total.
We know London has the talent to produce. In a better offense with a better quarterback, perhaps we’d be seeing a season similar to what Chris Olave is doing in New Orleans. Unfortunately, London’s best contributions to me this season have not been in my weekly league matchups, but in the various contests on Underdog Fantasy every week.
MORE: Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings
I can’t even criticize London’s usage. It’s actually elite. He has a near 30% target share, which is top 10 among wide receivers. The Falcons are, in fact, treating London like the alpha WR1 that he is.
The problem is the Falcons just don’t call pass plays. Only the Bears run the ball at a higher rate than the Falcons’ 57%. The Falcons lead the NFL in neutral game script run rate. Even worse, they are second in negative game script run rate at a whopping 54% of the time. Marcus Mariota averages 22.3 pass attempts per game, the second-lowest in the league.
Should Fantasy Managers Start London?
We are now getting to the point in the season where we not only have enough data to evaluate teams’ strengths and weaknesses, but we have repeat divisional matchups. That’s exactly what we have here in the Falcons and Panthers, who just met two weeks ago. In that Week 8 contest, London caught four of five targets for 31 yards.
The Panthers allow the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. It just doesn’t matter with the Falcons. A big part of my analysis is evaluating matchups. Yet, when it comes to the Falcons, it almost feels like a waste of time. Whether it’s a soft pass defense or an elite pass defense, the Falcons’ game plan and their receivers’ upside aren’t going to change.
MORE: Week 10 WR Fantasy Rankings
London checks in as our WR37 in our Week 10 wide receiver rankings. I get it. On paper, the matchup is good. He’s his team’s clear WR1. And he has a ton of talent. Unfortunately, I just can’t endorse starting London.
Generally, I like to fade players on Thursday Night Football whenever possible. With London, it doesn’t take much of a stretch to bench him. After all, this is a guy who hasn’t finished inside the top 48 since Week 3.
It’s painful to think of London as a WR5, but that’s who he’s proven to be. Fantasy managers should go out of their way to find someone — anyone else to put in their lineups ahead of London. Until we see signs of change in this offense, we cannot trust anyone other than Cordarrelle Patterson. Sit London on Thursday night.