The deeper we get into the season, the more hesitant I am about starting players on Thursday night. This week, we have the Houston Texans hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. Dameon Pierce has been a mandatory start for fantasy football managers since about Week 3. Should we be concerned about a tough Eagles defense on a short week, though?
Dameon Pierce’s Fantasy Outlook Against the Eagles
What an incredible start it’s been to the young rookie’s NFL career. Pierce is averaging 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which puts him at overall RB14 on the season. And the reality? He’s been even better.
Pierce didn’t really break out until Week 3. He scored just 4.9 and 8.7 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2. Since Week 3, Pierce is averaging 18.2 ppg. He’s totaled over 100 yards in four of his last five games. I wish I had taken the higher on Pierce’s combined yards on Underdog Fantasy.
Pierce’s underlying metrics won’t blow anyone away, but they indicate a definitively good running back. He’s making a defender miss on 16% of his rush attempts, and 54% of his yards have come after contact.
But perhaps the most important stat for fantasy purposes is his 17 rush attempts per game, which is fifth-most in the league. Volume is king — and Pierce is seeing plenty of it.
The Eagles Have an Elite Defense All-Around
Through the air, the Eagles allow just 184 passing yards per game. They’ve intercepted more passes (10) than touchdowns allowed (8). Facing Davis Mills, a placeholder quarterback who will undoubtedly be replaced in 2023, things could get ugly.
With that said, the Eagles have shown a bit of vulnerability on the ground. On the surface, they only allow 86.6 rushing yards per game to running backs, the 11th-fewest in the league. However, a big part of that is the lack of volume.
MORE: Week 9 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings
As the best team in the NFC, the Eagles find themselves leading…a lot. Consequently, their opponents have to abandon the run. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles only see 17.7 rush attempts against them per game, the second-fewest in the league.
But when teams run, they’ve found success with opponents averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The biggest question for Pierce is whether the Texans, as two-touchdown home underdogs, can keep the run in play long enough for Pierce to produce.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Pierce?
If you’ve been rolling out Pierce as your RB2 all season, it’s hard to imagine you have a viable alternative. That’s even more pronounced in a week like this one, where we have six teams on bye.
Pierce checks in as our RB22 in our Week 9 running back rankings. It’s lower than where he’s been recently, but he’s still firmly inside the top 24.
Generally, I like to fade players on Thursday Night Football whenever possible. Unfortunately, I neither think that’s possible nor recommended when it comes to Pierce.
Even in bad matchups, we’ve seen good running backs overcome the situation. We can also bank on Pierce touching the ball at least 15 times, as he’s done in six straight games.
It’s difficult to envision someone having a team out there that can afford to bench that level of volume. I’m sure some exist, but for the vast majority of you, Pierce has to remain in your lineup, even if this ends up being more of a floor game than a ceiling game.