While the draft and waivers impact a fantasy football team, nothing matters if you make the wrong lineup decisions. As managers make the final tweaks to their lineups for Week 1, should you start Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson against the Jacksonville Jaguars? Or will J.D. McKissic eat into Gibson’s production on Sunday?
Should you start Antonio Gibson against the Jaguars in your fantasy football lineup in Week 1?
I’d argue no player has seen more of a change in value than Antonio Gibson. From a draft day target to being someone you couldn’t pay a fellow league mate to draft at ADP, Gibson is back on the fantasy radar for Week 1.
It’s honestly just been a continuation of his career. Gibson was a bit of a conundrum as a draft pick, given that he had seen just 33 touches at the running back position while at Memphis. Still, despite the questions and a global pandemic, Gibson delivered in 2020. He finished as the RB13 while averaging 14.4 points per game.
2021 saw Gibson duplicate his success, as he once again finished as the RB10 in PPR formats. Ending the year 19th in per-game scoring, Gibson finished sixth in rushing yards with 1,037 on 258 carries and seven touchdowns. Where he lost value was in the receiving game.
Despite his background, the team used J.D. McKissic more in the passing game, as he led the duo in receptions, 43 to 42. While that seems like nothing, McKissic played in only 11 games due to an injury. Gibson, on the other hand, played in 16 games.
That brings us to 2022. The Commanders seemingly did everything they could to show us that they do not view Gibson as everything fantasy managers hope he could be. Not only did Washington keep McKissic in-house after he initially agreed to a deal with the Bills, but they drafted Brian Robinson Jr. out of Alabama.
Robinson Jr., based on all reports and what we saw in the preseason, went from being a red zone specialist to the suspected RB1, with Gibson returning kicks and punts. Unfortunately, Robinson Jr. was the victim of an attempted carjacking, which resulted in him being shot multiple times in the lower body, delaying his debut. Gibson went from being a player you couldn’t pay someone to draft to suddenly having a bit more life to his fantasy upside. But is there enough to start him in Week 1?
Can Antonio Gibson be started when J.D. McKissic is active?
Gibson’s value peaked for a glorious few days back in the early spring. Right when it looked like McKissic was going to Buffalo to be their receiving back, it appeared Gibson would get the respect and opportunities he deserved.
Then all of a sudden, as I alluded to before, McKissic came back. That did have a negative impact on Gibson, but maybe not as bad as we want to think.
From Weeks 1 through 11, when McKissic was active, Gibson was the RB17, averaging 16.6 carries a game along with 2.7 targets. McKissic saw 4.8 targets and 4.1 rushes over this same span. That’s actually really good. For context, Gibson averaged 19.4 opportunities per game last year, which was ninth-most.
There was an unsurprising boost in his targets with McKissic out of the lineup. While his carries dipped to 15 per game, Gibson saw his targets increase to 4.6, resulting in an RB6 fantasy performance to close things out.
I’m not as worried for Gibson as others when it comes to McKissic’s impact. Gibson, in this two-back scheme, is objectively good for fantasy. This is partly due to his touchdown efficiency. But he still did all of this in 2021 while watching his metrics drop from one touchdown every 15 carries as a rookie to one touchdown every 37 carries in year two. But when Robinson returns, all bets are off for Gibson.
If anything, the player who scares me the most for Gibson in fantasy is his QB, Carson Wentz. Just look at Nyheim Hines last year. After seeing 76 targets in 2020, that dropped to 57 in 2021 with Wentz as his QB.
Wentz is less prone to check down, instead taking a shot or scrambling for a few yards himself. With targets roughly three times more valuable than a carry, that will be felt.
Gibson should be started in Week 1 against Jacksonville for fantasy
In neutral game situations last year (+/- 7 points), Washington was just below league average in terms of pace (28.6 seconds). When down by 8+ points, the Commanders barely sped up, snapping the ball every 26.9 seconds, 1.7 seconds slower than the league average.
Washington was just as conservative with its play-calling. They rushed on 46% of plays when neutral (23rd in the NFL) and 58% when leading by 8+ points (22nd).
Why does this matter? Because Washington vs. Jacksonville is a relatively evenly split game, with the Commanders just a 2.5-point favorite. Unquestionably the Jags have a different feel this year. Gone is Urban Meyer, and in comes a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson. Trevor Lawrence has a new weapon in Christian Kirk, plus both Travis Etienne and James Robinson are back.
Defensively, the Jaguars did make some improvement, most notably with No. 1 overall draft pick EDGE Travon Walker and LB Devin Lloyd. Does this help? Of course. But the Jaguars are not magically fixed of what ailed them last year when they ranked 19th in points to the RB position (23.55), gave up the 10th most rush yards per game (127), and surrendered 22 touchdowns (tied for third).
If you have Gibson, you are good to start him in most leagues. Gibson is the RB15 in PFN’s fantasy football rankings, placing him as a solid RB2 play. We have a decent idea of how this offense will work in their two-headed approach.
But when Robinson is back, stay away. Start Gibson in Week 1 for fantasy but keep a close eye on the rumors. The minute it sounds like Robinons Jr. is close to returning, trade Gibson away before his value hits the end of the roller coaster ride.