With the Dallas Cowboys’ playoff berth and NFC East crown secured, there is little to play for, adding further confusion to how fantasy football managers approach Week 18. As they get ready to take on the Eagles, should fantasy managers start CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, or Cedrick Wilson? Is there enough concern Dallas will sit their stars to give us pause and bench players in the final week of championships?
What are the Dallas Cowboys playing for in Week 18?
Motivation is everything. What is a team playing for in Week 18? For the Cowboys, they locked up the division in Week 16. The goal was to land the top seed, but that opportunity went out the door when they lost to the Cardinals in Week 17.
There is a slight chance they can improve their playoff seeding, but they are not guaranteed to move above their No. 4 ranking even with a win. It actually applies to both teams as the Eagles are also in the playoffs. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said the plan is to play his starters, but the question is how much?
They have already ruled out several players due to injury and placed others on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Odds are we see starters rested at some point.
The question for fantasy managers is can Lamb and Cooper do enough damage with their snaps to remain must-starts?
CeeDee Lamb’s 2021 fantasy output
The Cowboys are a team that can drop 40 points any given week. They have an MVP-caliber QB when at his best and multiple players in the upper echelon of their position. Lamb is one of those as the second-year WR is one of the shining stars. Yet, for fantasy, he has been a bit of a disappointment as of late — consistency has been an issue.
In 15 games, Lamb has finished as a WR2 or better in seven. However, he has only been a WR2+ once (Week 13) since missing Week 12 against the Saints due to a concussion. In Weeks 1-11, Lamb was the WR13 in PPR scoring, averaging 16.3 PPR points. He accounted for 20.9% of the team’s targets, 28.78% of the air yards, and generated 754 passing yards and 6 touchdowns. Those are numbers you would expect out of a player of his caliber.
Lamb’s recent struggles
Since Week 13, Lamb is the WR19. While that might not seem like a sizeable drop, he’s averaged just 12.7 PPR points since then, placing him 28th in per-game scoring amongst players with 20 or more targets. Interestingly, he is seeing more volume, averaging 8.2 targets in his last five games compared to 7.7 in his first 11. His receptions are up 0.4 per game, and his yardage is slightly down from 74 to 63.4.
So what’s the change? Touchdowns. Lamb has not found the end zone since Week 10. When a touchdown reception is a minimum of 7.1 PPR points, you will take a noticeable downturn in fantasy production if you lose those as a receiver.
Does Lamb get back on track in Week 18? I’m not so sure. After watching Michael Gallup tear his ACL and have his season end, I don’t believe Lamb will play the whole contest.
Right now, I have him pegged for playing the first half and putting on street clothes in the locker room. I think he can do enough to be a mid-WR2, but asking for anything else from a fantasy standpoint might be hopeful wishing at best.
Amari Cooper has not made fantasy managers very happy
Through 14 games this season, Amari Cooper has caught 63 of his 97 targets for 786 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has finished as a WR2 or better just twice. Meanwhile, Cooper has five finishes as the WR50 or worse. Is this what you were hoping for when you drafted him? I sure wouldn’t be happy.
It’s been a return of the Cooper we saw in previous years. His boom games help to hide the ones where he falls flat. 44% of his yards (346) came in three contests. Since Week 9, Cooper has averaged 3.6 receptions and 41.6 yards on 5.9 receptions. He has 20 yards or fewer in two of his last three outings despite playing on more than 90% of the snaps in each. The only thing that has saved him is finding the end zone, as he has scored in three of the last four games.
Cooper is a riskier fantasy starter in Week 18
I think the loss of Gallup will lead to more targets for Cooper. Since Gallup’s return in Week 10, he’s actually seen more targets (16.3% to 15.6%) and had nearly 110 more yards than Cooper in the games where both players played. While Wilson will see some of these, Cooper should benefit most.
With that said, I expect to see this take effect in the playoffs as Cooper will see a similar snap count as Lamb. Unless he finds the end zone, it’s unlikely he has a ton of success this week.
The Eagles are No. 2 against wideouts and have surrendered just 10 TDs all year. They will likely play conservatively since they have numerous players on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Cooper is a mid-to-low end WR2, and if I had players in higher-leverage games, I would start them over him.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. will not see enough volume to be a relevant fantasy option in Week 18
Following Gallup’s season-ending ACL injury, Wilson became the hot name as the player who will fall into a more prominent role. It’s the same role he had when Gallup missed Weeks 2-9. The thing is, he wasn’t all that great from a fantasy perspective.
In those seven games, Wilson averaged 2.3 receptions, 3.4 targets, and 36.6 yards. That’s not moving the needle. He was the WR51 over this period, averaging 9.0 fantasy points per game. And that’s with scoring 3 touchdowns. In Week 8, he was the WR18. In the other six games, he was the WR43 or worse. I can’t recommend starting Wilson in Week 18 with championships on the line.