Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz revived his career after a midseason trade away from the Eagles and proved to have some fantasy football value. He was Kyler Murray’s top target over the second half of the season. What is Ertz’s current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Zach Ertz ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Ertz’s ADP is around 96th overall as the TE9. Every season, there are a few players who are perfectly priced. In 2022, Ertz is one of them. He’s our consensus TE9 as well.
Whenever I don’t take a tight end early, I find myself gravitating toward Ertz. He just goes in the perfect spot.
I have Ertz in a tier with T.J. Hockenson. Yet, Ertz goes 30 picks after Hockenson. Why? I’m not sure I’d rather have Hockenson at all, let alone pay a 2.5-round premium for him. Ertz is the perfect midpoint tight end. He goes well after the elite ones, but well earlier than the “okay, I’m just taking whoever and streaming if it doesn’t work out” TEs.
Ertz is far from a must-draft player. Feel free to pass on him if a running back or wide receiver jumps out at you at his ADP. But if you’re eyeing Ertz as your TE1, he’s a very good pick.
Zach Ertz’s projected fantasy value in 2022
It’s ironic how willing I am to draft Ertz this season. Last year, I thought he was done. His 2020 campaign was awful. It was the first season he failed to play at least 14 games. And in the 11 games he did play in, it wasn’t pretty.
Ertz posted his lowest target share since 2014 at 18.8%. He averaged a mere 30.5 receiving yards per game and found the end zone just once. Ertz averaged 7 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the TE24.
The 2021 season was supposed to be the Dallas Goedert takeover. Instead, Ertz and Goedert kind of cannibalized each other. Ertz averaged 8.1 ppg during his time with the Eagles. Ertz wasn’t fantasy-relevant, but he did enough to stop Goedert from truly ascending. Goedert averaged just 9.3 ppg. At the same time, it was clear Goedert was the Eagles’ TE1.
After the Cardinals’ Week 6 game, Ertz got new life. The Eagles traded him to the Cardinals. In 11 games with the Cardinals, Ertz proved me wrong — he’s not done yet. Ertz averaged 52.2 receiving yards per game, which is right in line with his career average. With DeAndre Hopkins unable to stay on the field, Ertz actually led Arizona in target share during his 11 games with the team.
Ertz averaged 11.9 ppg with the Cardinals, which is firmly in the mid-TE1 territory. Although Ertz is nearing the end of his career, he proved he can still be a fantasy TE1 in the right circumstances.
Impact of the Cardinals’ depth chart on Ertz’s fantasy value
Those circumstances still exist in 2022. The Cardinals are one of the most explosive offenses in the league. They play fast, running no-huddle a league-high 37% of the time. They also score a lot of points. Most importantly, though, is the likelihood Ertz sees significant volume, especially early in the season. As we know, volume is king.
The Cardinals lost Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds in free agency. They did trade for Marquise Brown from the Ravens and kept A.J. Green. However, neither is a true WR1. Green is barely a WR3 at 34 years old. Rondale Moore is supposed to see an increased role, but that doesn’t mean it will come at Ertz’s expense. Everything points to Ertz being a prominent part of the passing attack once again.
The first few weeks of the season matter
We have no idea what the landscape of the NFL will look like later in the season. What we do have is a decent idea of what it looks like in September. For Ertz, it’s pretty good.
Hopkins will miss the first six games while serving his suspension. Brown replaces Kirk as the WR1, who should be the WR2. Basically, things look quite similar to how they did over the second half of the 2021 season when Ertz was leading the team in target share.
Fantasy managers should consider Ertz a low TE1, at worst. His most likely outcome is somewhere in the TE8-12 range. However, he could very well be a top-five tight end during the games Hopkins misses. There’s also the possibility Hopkins just can’t stay healthy anymore, and Ertz has more opportunities to be in a more prominent role.
Ertz is not winning any leagues, but he will keep fantasy managers competitive at the tight end position.