Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd has been relegated to third in the target hierarchy behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. What is Boyd’s current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Tyler Boyd ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Boyd’s ADP is around 138th overall as the WR50. He’s a bit tricky to evaluate because he goes at a spot where we’re typically looking for younger players with unknown ceilings. At 27 years old, we know who Boyd is at this point.
I’m a fan of Boyd. He’s proven capable of producing WR2 numbers when he plays the WR2 role. Unfortunately, that will only happen in the event of a Chase or Higgins injury. So, how do we properly value what is essentially a handcuff wide receiver?
Tyler Boyd’s projected fantasy value in 2022
In his classic third-year breakout in 2018, Boyd averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. But since that season, Boyd’s ppg has dropped each year. He averaged 13.9 ppg in 2019, 12.8 ppg in 2020, and 11.5 ppg in 2021.
In 2020, the Bengals drafted Higgins. In 2021, they drafted Chase. With 2021 being the first season where Boyd was the clear WR3, his target share naturally dropped to 18.4%. It was his lowest target share since 2017.
Boyd isn’t exactly a splash play/downfield bomb type of guy. He needs his volume to produce. And he just isn’t going to get it with Higgins and Chase around.
The good news is Boyd will be the Bengals’ primary slot receiver. He led all receivers in slot snaps last season. Although his aDOT was a career-worst 7.3 yards, he can still have fantasy value as a floor-based receptions guy.
Impact of the Bengals’ depth chart on Boyd’s fantasy value
Cincinnati is one of the easier teams to evaluate for this season. Not much has changed. Their five key offensive weapons are all returning: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.
The biggest change for the Bengals is actually a positive for everyone — the improvement of their offensive line. Games are won and lost in the trenches. More time for Burrow will only help the offense score more.
Boyd is a proven producer when given the opportunity
Boyd is not some random WR3 we hope can produce when thrust into a starting role. He’s proven it. If he was forced to operate as the Bengals’ WR2 all season, he would be at least a WR3 in fantasy, if not a WR2.
In 2021, Higgins missed two games (Chase missed none). In those two games, Boyd was elevated into the WR2 role and averaged nine targets and 17.2 ppg. Compare that to his 5.6 targets and 11.1 ppg in the games where Higgins played and you can see the stark contrast.
Given his role and usage, it’s not surprising that Boyd has been largely healthy over his career. He’s only missed four games total in four seasons. Whenever Higgins or Chase is absent from the lineup, Boyd will be a valuable fantasy option.
The Bengals could stand to play a little faster
Burrow has proven capable of supporting three fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Boyd is obviously not on the level of Chase or Higgins, but it would be unfair to not call him a relevant fantasy asset. He is someone that will be on fantasy rosters the entire season.
With that said, the Bengals’ slow pace of play limited their offensive opportunities last season. Cincinnati ran the fifth-fewest plays per game at just 58, and they also played at the second-slowest pace in the NFL, averaging just 28.5 seconds per snap.
The good news is the Bengals passed at a 60% rate. So when they called plays, they didn’t run a backwards antiquated 1970s run-heavy attack. Even if their pace doesn’t improve much, Burrow is doubtful to take another league-leading 51 sacks with their beefed-up offensive line. That will also enable them to attempt more passes.
With another year of experience for everyone, the Bengals’ offense could be even better in 2022. Fantasy managers looking to draft Boyd at his ADP should consider what their rosters look like and whether a guy like him makes sense as opposed to a more volatile upside player. Regardless, Boyd is a worthwhile pick at his ADP.