After being selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Tyler Allgeier’s ADP in fantasy drafts is extremely intriguing. With an opportunity to see significant touches, is Allgeier a value at his current ADP, or should fantasy football managers look to avoid his situation in Atlanta?
Tyler Allgeier ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Allgeier’s current ADP in redraft leagues is between 140 and 180 overall across the three formats. His ADP is significantly higher in non-PPR (140) than it is in PPR (178) leagues. However, across the three formats, Allgeier’s ADP at the positioin is very close, varying between the RB53 and 59
In a 12-team league, the 140th selection is at the end of the 12th round, while the 180th is at the end of the 15th round. Therefore, Allgeier is being selected as a bench option in most 12- and 14-team leagues but as a fringe starter in 16-team leagues or deeper.
Allgeier’s projected fantasy value in 2022
If you believe the Falcons’ depth charts during the preseason, Allgeier is a cut candidate as opposed to a fantasy asset. Allgeier has been residing at the very bottom of the depth chart among RBs, listed all the way down at eighth. However, that has largely been viewed with a hint of skepticism, as the Falcons appear to have generally put their rookies towards the backend of their depth chart.
Therefore, the expectation is that Allgeier is in competition with Damien Williams for the RB2 role behind Cordarrelle Patterson. Based on what we saw last year, that second spot on the depth chart appears to come with some level of value. Mike Davis had 138 rush attempts and 58 targets playing in the secondary role to Patterson.
Davis finished tied for 50th in terms of points per game with 8.1 in PPR formats. Now, Davis is not the most dynamic back, averaging 3.8 yards per rush attempt and 4.2 yards per touch, so more value can be had out of those 196 opportunities that Davis managed. Additionally, there is some talk that the Falcons want to reduce the touches Patterson takes, most likely on handoffs, so there could be another 20-30 opportunities available as well.
If Allgeier can beat out Williams and be the back that sees those opportunities, he has intriguing value. He is coming off a 2021 season at BYU, where he had 1,601 rushing yards and 23 rushing touchdowns on 276 attempts. However, he also added 199 yards on 28 targets, demonstrating he can be effective in both elements of the offense.
Should you draft Allgeier in 2022?
The major concern with Allgeier is what role he will see in 2022. While there is talk of Patterson’s touches being restricted, he is still expected to be the lead back in terms of opportunities. Therefore, Allgeier is looking at a best-case scenario of a slight increase in Davis’ role last year. However, that is complicated by the presence of Williams on this depth chart, who could see some early season opportunities.
In PFN’s consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings, Allgeier is sitting in the RB50 region and around 130th overall. We do not include defenses and kickers, so while he seems like a tremendous value compared to his overall ADP, it is important to look at where he ranks in his position.
Allgeier very much makes sense as a selection in the 12-14th rounds, depending on the format. There is every chance he has a solid week-to-week role in the Falcons’ offense this season, even if just as the backup to Patterson.
However, there are also durability concerns for Patterson. His 205 touches last year were an increase of 140 on his previous career high. Thus, it is also smart to look at contingency plans in that offense if Patterson were to get hurt. Allgeier would certainly be in the mix for the role, even if it is a committee situation with Williams or another back.
At his current ADP, Allgeier has enough upside to make him worth a speculative selection. There is a role to be earned in that backfield, and he has the talent to win it. The ceiling, if something were to happen to Patterson, is high enough to make it a worthwhile investment. Still, he is a player to take at his ADP and not someone you should be reaching for, given the uncertainty in the depth chart at this stage.