The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Kansas City Chiefs TE Travie Kelce’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Given the scarcity of week-winning upside at the tight end position, where should Kelce come off the boards in upcoming fantasy drafts?
Travis Kelce ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Kelce currently has an ADP of 13, coming off the board as the TE1. For comparison, Mark Andrews, the TE2, is going around 10 picks later (ADP 22). In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Kelce is currently the TE1 with an ADP of 16.
I’ll be honest — I am somewhat torn on Kelce. Not in his talent but in his value. What scares me is his volume, something we have never worried about before. The first gut reaction to Tyreek Hill being traded was assuming Kelce would never leave the field and see 150+ targets. But that’s not the case.
If anything, would we be surprised if the Cheifs reduced his regular-season snap count to make sure he was healthy for the playoffs? Outside of Patrick Mahomes, no one on the Chiefs is as important to their success as Kelce.
Over the last four years, Kelce’s snap rate has continuously fallen from 95% to 92%, 86%, and 82% last year. What happens if it goes from 82% to 75% in 2022? Even with his absurd efficiency, can Kelce return near the first-round value on a 75% snap share?
For me, Kelce and Mark Andrews are separated by less than a single point in my projections. If anything, Andrews in the late second might be the better value, but I won’t tell anyone not to draft one of the best tight ends of all time if they feel he will be Kansas City’s top option in 2022. However, given the cost, it’s unlikely I end up with Kelce on my roster. Instead, I target Andrews, Kyle Pitts, and especially Dalton Schlutz, my favorite mid-range TE for 2022.
Travie Kelce’s projected fantasy value in 2022
From a production standpoint, you can’t argue how special Kelce has been. Since 2015, he has finished as a TE1 in a staggering 74% of his games while averaging 16.2 PPR/game. Last season was the first time since 2015 he did not finish as the TE1 on the year. He was the TE2 behind Andrews. Slacker.
In his “down year,” Kelce was No. 2 in targets (134), receptions (92), and yards (1,125). Only Andrews had a better season in all three categories (107, 153, and 1,361), but they tied for the top spot with nine touchdowns each.
Since 2017, Kelce has averaged 137.4 targets, 96 receptions, 1,228.8 yards, and 8.6 touchdowns. Since 2018, Kelce is No. 1 in the NFL in receiving yards (4,456 yards) and has 17 games of over 100 receiving yards. No other TE has 10.
The question becomes, how much more volume could Kelce handle without Hill? Even in games without Hill (four), Kelce saw a negligible shift in his volume, averaging 8.75 targets. Although, he did see a slight increase in yardage at 87.75 yards a game (+9.34).
I’m not sure how much more volume Kelce can realistically see, especially if his snap share does decrease. I do feel he is in the 120-target range as the leader of the team, but guys like Andrews or even Pitts could see more. We are really buying into the efficiency of Kelce and Mahomes on a per-touch basis.
Last year, despite having only two fewer touchdowns, Kelce regressed to 1.96 fantasy points per target, matching his 2018 season but 0.2 behind his 2020 campaign. Kelce would have to fall off a cliff not to be a top-five tight end, but his days with a stranglehold on the No. 1 spot could be closing, if not in the rearview mirror already.