Tom Brady’s fantasy football ADP took a little wobble when the veteran QB was absent from camp for 11 days. However, he returned to camp and took snaps in the final preseason game. Therefore, with Brady’s ADP now seemingly stabilized, let’s see whether he projects to be a value or not at that price in fantasy football drafts.
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Tom Brady ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
When we judge the ADP of quarterbacks for fantasy, we tend to look at the positional value as opposed to the overall. The reason for that is the format being either a 1QB or a Superflex league changes the overall ADP significantly. However, normally the positional value remains largely static.
Brady’s ADP is the QB9, with a variation between QB7 and QB11, depending on the site. In a 1QB league, Brady’s ADP is roughly in Rounds 6-8, while he’s a borderline first/second-round selection in Superflex formats.
Tom Brady’s projected fantasy value in 2022
There are some big differences in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense this year. The most notable out of the gate is the absence of both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown. Both were a key part of this offense last year but have not returned for very different reasons. While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, things will look different at the other WR and TE spots.
During free agency, Tampa Bay added Russell Gage, and then they brought in Julio Jones at the start of training camp. They also added Kyle Rudolph to compete with Cameron Brate and Cade Otton at tight end. Gage and Brate currently sit atop the Buccaneers’ depth chart. While both are downgrades on their predecessors, neither is a terrible pass-catching option.
Unsurprisingly, the absence of either Brown or Gronkowski in the past two years has had a slightly negative impact on Brady’s output. Without Brown, Brady has averaged more than one passing yard less per attempt, but the difference in output in terms of fantasy points was less than a single point.
With Gronkowski, the fantasy output difference is just under two points per game. Brady averages half a yard less per attempt and 0.15 more interceptions per game when Gronk’s not on the field. The good news is that while there is a negative impact with the absence of one or both, it’s not as though Brady’s fantasy output drops by 15-20%.
Offensive line woes are a concern
The biggest concern comes along the offensive line. Tampa Bay already lost their starting guards from last year — one through retirement and the other to free agency. Then, Ryan Jensen was carted off with a knee injury. While it’s ruled Jensen out of any further preseason work, he’s yet to be put on IR.
His backup, Robert Hainsey, was then injured in the Buccaneers’ final preseason game. He was at least able to walk off the field under his own power, but it was another scare. In between those two injuries, guard Aaron Stinnie was placed on IR.
All these injuries along the offensive line are beginning to mount. Jensen is expected to start the year on the PUP list or IR designated to return. That could leave the Buccaneers with two new guards and potentially having to explore the waiver wire for a new center if Hainsey’s injury is serious.
Brady is a cerebral footballer. He can use his smarts to downplay the effects of these absences with blocking schemes and calls at the line. However, at 45, there is only so much he can do. One element is if the line cannot hold up against basic run defenses, it will push more players back into coverage. That will have an impact on limiting Brady’s effectiveness for fantasy managers.
These injuries are not a disaster for Brady, but they do limit his upside a little.
Should you draft Brady in 2022?
Brady may have lost two of his main weapons from last year and is dealing with offensive line concerns, but his ADP has dropped a little too low. In PFN’s consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings, Brady is just outside the top five at the position and in the mid-60-70 region overall for 1QB leagues.
On almost every site other than ESPN that offers the opportunity to get him at a value. Brady’s lack of mobility in the run game limits his upside as a potential QB1 overall, but he showed last year that he can still be a top-five QB for fantasy.
If the loss of Gronk and Brown leads to a couple of fewer fantasy points, Brady would still be in the QB6-10 region. Additionally, those reductions in output without Gronk and Brown were when the Buccaneers only had their own bench depth to cover their absences. Gage and Jones are much better than bench depth, and their presence as replacements should help mitigate the loss.
Brady is a solid QB to have for fantasy this year, and he comes at a good price. He may not have the ceiling of Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, but he has a similar floor and comes at a much more digestible price.