T.J. Hockenson’s fantasy football ADP for 2022 is an intriguing reflection of the uncertainty surrounding the Detroit Lions’ tight end. After missing the final five games last year, injury questions once again plague the talented TE as he enters his fourth season in the league. At Hockenson’s ADP in 2022 fantasy football drafts, is he a player you should be excited to invest in or one to stay away from?
T.J. Hockenson ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Hockenson’s ADP in redraft fantasy leagues is right around 70 overall on average across all three formats. His ADP in PPR format is slightly higher at around pick 65, but it’s within half a round across the three main scoring formats. In PPR and non-PPR, Hockenson is being viewed as the TE7 off the board and drops to TE8 in half-PPR, thanks to the elevated ADP of Dallas Goedert on Yahoo.
So what we’re seeing across the board is that Hockenson is viewed as a sixth or seventh-round selection in 12-team leagues. His ADP is 60th overall on NFL.com, which would be the end of the fifth in a 12-team league, but the end of the sixth round in standard 10-team formats. Hockenson sits in a mini TE tier with Goedert when it comes to the ADPs across the position.
T.J. Hockenson’s projected fantasy value in 2022
So much about Hockenson screams buy, buy, buy. He’s the clear top TE on the Lions’ depth chart, ahead of Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra. He’s arguably one of the top three pass catchers, alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift. All of that, and Hockenson is going a clear tier down from the top six at the position, with arguably as much upside.
Unfortunately, things are rarely that clear-cut in fantasy football. In non-PPR, Hockenson averaged just under seven points per game (ppg) over the last two years, making him a low-end TE1. Things were slightly better in PPR, where Hockenson averaged 12.1 ppg last year and 11 ppg in 2020. On both occasions, he finished as a mid TE1, a clear distance from the top four in terms of ppg.
The depth chart in terms of receiving options in Detroit is also somewhat murky. Swift is a great pass-catching option, and Jamaal Williams is also very useful. Then, there’s the addition of DJ Chark, the return of Quintez Cephus from injury, and the impending return of Jameson Williams during the year. All of that makes it hard to project Hockenson for more than 7+ targets per game on a consistent basis this season.
We’re then left relying on an increase in efficiency. Well, over the past two years, Hockenson has been relatively stable. He averaged just three more yards per game in 2021, and his touchdowns per game dropped by around 10%. The only thing that drove a value increase was additional targets, receptions, and catch rate. So without projecting another jump in targets, you’re looking for Hockenson to combine all his career bests.
What are the best and worst-case scenarios?
Let’s assume that we see a flat target share for Hockenson from 2021 to 2022. Thus, we’re looking at seven targets per game this year.
For context, that’s more than every tight end not named Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or Rob Gronkowski saw last year. In our best-case scenario, Hockenson catches those targets at the same rate of 72.6% (5.08 receptions per game).
So now let’s take his career-highs for yards per reception and touchdowns per game. That is 54.8 yards per game and 0.38 touchdowns per game. In non-PPR leagues, that equates to 7.76 ppg, and in PPR, 12.84 ppg. That return would have seen Hockenson as the TE6 last year in non-PPR and the TE5 in PPR.
Now for a realistic worst-case scenario. Hockenson sees a reduction of one target per game (six), and his catch rate drops back to his 2020 number of 66.3%. That’s essentially four receptions per game. But if we take his yards per reception and touchdowns per game from last year, we have 38.4 yards per game and 0.33 touchdowns on average. That all combines for 5.82 ppg in non-PPR and 9.82 ppg in PPR.
Both of those numbers would have seen Hockenson slightly finish outside the top 12 at the position last season.
Should you draft Hockenson in 2022?
Hockenson is, in some ways, a nice asset for fantasy because his realistic floor is only just outside of the top 12 at the position. The problem is that Hockenson’s realistic ceiling is just barely a top-five TE option. That balance largely explains why his ADP is essentially spot on in terms of the position at its current value.
In PFN’s consensus 2022 TE fantasy rankings, Hockenson is the TE8 and just outside 90th overall. He’s just behind Goedert, who has a slightly higher upside with a potentially expanded role in Philadelphia this season.
If you’re looking for a solid floor option at the position, then Hockenson offers you that. However, at near 90th overall, you should ideally look for him to slide a round or two before taking him. The problem there is that with the top six tight ends off the board, you face a tough decision. Hockenson and Goedert are the final two “safe floor” TE options available.
My advice would be, if a floor is what you’re looking at, take the second of these two. Judging how to play it will depend on how your league shapes out. If everyone between you and the turn already has a tight end and both are on the board, you can probably wait for another round. However, if at least two teams in the group before your next pick still need a TE, waiting for another round becomes increasingly risky.
Ideally, you don’t want to spend a sixth or seventh-round pick on Goedert or Hockenson. However, one must play it smart according to draft position and how the draft plays out.