The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will the change at QB finally unlock McLaurin’s incredible upside, or will his talent go underutilized once again? And what does that mean for his value in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
Terry McLaurin ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, McLaurin currently has an ADP of 40, coming off the board as the WR14. For comparison, the next Commanders WR to be drafted is rookie Jahan Dotson as the WR60 (168).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, McLaurin is currently the WR15 as the 37th overall player. I have McLaurin as my WR19 and 44th overall player.
From a talent standpoint, there is no debate. McLaurin is as good as this league has to offer and deserves to be mentioned amongst the top names. The issue is that it’ll never happen due to where he plays and the lack of competitive quarterback play he has dealt with over his career.
I wish the NFL had a transfer protocol so McLaurin could get out of D.C., but he did seem pretty content signing a three-year, $71 million extension that will keep him in the burgundy and gold until the end of the 2025 season. That also tells you how the team feels about him and how much he will be utilized.
Truth be told, McLaurin is the only player on this roster I feel I can trust for fantasy at the moment. Carson Wentz is not a target in 1QB leagues and is likely on his last chance to be a starting signal-caller in the NFL. He did play better than given credit, likely due to his unceremonious release from the Colts and comments from ownership. Antonio Gibson has tumbled down rankings faster than a skydiver with no parachute, and the receivers are either unproven or injury-prone.
From an upside standpoint, McLaurin brings so much to your fantasy roster, but his consistency worries me. In a 2021 season with no target competition, McLaurin was a WR1 in just 24% of his games (four), leaving him as a WR3 or worse the rest of the season. Those four blowup games accounted for 48.9% of his fantasy points. I’d have no issue with him as a high-upside WR3, but I realize there will be some risk involved. When on the clock, I would draft Gabriel Davis over McLaurin in the same range but in a far better offense.
Terry McLaurin’s projected fantasy value in 2022
In his second consecutive 130+ target campaign, McLaurin hauled in 77 receptions for 1,053 yards and five TDs as the WR25 in PPR (WR32 in points per game). In his three years in the NFL, McLaurin has struggled in this regard, recording top-24 (WR2+) weeks in just 37% of his games. But I almost feel bad pinning this on him.
Taylor Heinicke’s on-target percentage of 71.5% was the fourth worst amongst starting QBs. That’s not a new thing, either. In McLaurin’s three years, his catchable ball rates have been 72%, 75.4%, and 72.3%. When the ball is deemed catchable, McLaurin pulls them in at an elite 84.7% (222 of 262). For a refresher, his QBs have been Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, and Colt McCoy. Wentz might very well be an upgrade after all — at worst, a lateral move.
Wentz threw 144 more yards (3,563), seven more touchdowns (27), and had eight fewer intercpetions (seven) than Heinicke last season. Deeper targets are another area where Wentz could be an upgrade. While Heinicke attempted more deep passes (64 to 60), Wentz had a higher completion rate, connecting on 43.3% of his throws (sixth in the NFL) to Heinicke’s 32.8% (24th). That’s another hopeful boost for McLaurin.
I’m not “down” on McLaurin from a statistical standpoint. He’s projected for over 130 targets in 2022 with roughly 1,100 yards. He’ll look good at the end of the year, but as mentioned, the consistency worries me. It also concerns me that McLaurin will inevitably play a few games with a backup QB, as Wentz is likely to get hurt due to his playstyle. That was an issue last season when he tried to gut it out with two sprained ankles simultaneously, and it impacted the offense, especially his receivers.
If we see a consistent McLaurin who receives 7+ quality targets a game, he’ll dominate. Ideally, McLaurin would be my third receiver, but based on ADP, it’s unlikely to happen without starting a fantasy draft with two WRs.