Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins displayed WR1 upside despite being his team’s WR2 last season. What is Higgins’ current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Tee Higgins ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Higgins’ ADP is around 33rd overall as the WR12, which is quite high for a player who is not even his team’s WR1. Normally, it’s not a great idea to draft a wide receiver that is not his team’s WR1 this early. But for Higgins, we can make an exception.
Despite being behind Ja’Marr Chase on the depth chart, Higgins is very much his equal in the eyes of Joe Burrow. Chase and Higgins are close to 1A/1B than WR1/WR2. The Bengals’ offense doesn’t really distribute the ball much to its ancillary players. Higgins is very much capable of producing WR1 numbers.
While Higgins may not check the box of being his team’s leading receiver, he checks a whole host of other boxes. Some guys around him have questions about age and declining efficiency (Keenan Allen), quarterback play (Terry McLaurin/Diontae Johnson), and passing volume (A.J. Brown). Higgins, meanwhile, has none of these concerns.
Tee Higgins’ projected fantasy value in 2022
It’s crazy to think the Bengals not only have two of the 12 best wide receivers in fantasy, but they’re both under 24 years old.
Even as the Bengals’ WR2, Higgins is set up to smash. He progressed exactly how you’d like a rookie to sophomore progression to go. His target share increased from 19% to 24%, and his receiving yards per game went from 56.7 to 77.9. Most importantly, his PPR fantasy points per game went from 12.2 (high WR4 numbers) to 15.7 (high WR2).
It wasn’t just Higgins’ raw numbers that improved. He also established a ceiling as high as anyone. In his rookie season, Higgins surpassed 20 fantasy points three times but never scored more than 22.5.
Last season, Higgins scored more than 22.5 points three times, including his 43.4 overall WR1 performance in Week 16 against the Ravens.
Higgins provides a great combination of floor and ceiling. He had a couple of down games following an early-season shoulder injury. But for the most part, his underwhelming weeks weren’t costing you matchups. His spike weeks, certainly helped you win them, though.
Impact of the Bengals’ depth chart on Higgins’ fantasy value
The Bengals’ depth chart is exactly what you want to see for a fantasy wide receiver. They have a young, ascending quarterback in Joe Burrow, who is already one of the best in the NFL, yet still not in his prime. Cincinnati also beefed up their offensive line through free agency and the draft. Perhaps most important though, the Bengals have a very consolidated offensive touch distribution.
Of the Bengals’ total targets and carries, 58% went to Higgins, Chase, or Joe Mixon. Tyler Boyd is one of the best WR3s in the NFL, but he’s firmly behind the top two. He and tight end C.J. Uzomah combined to see 15.8% of the touches. Higgins may not have produced at the levels of Chase, but his opportunities were about equal.
Chase and Higgins both saw target shares just under 24% last season. Truly elite WR1s push 30% target shares. Chase deserves to be in that range. However, even if he gets there, it doesn’t necessarily need to be at Higgins’ expense. The reality is these two guys should combine to see 50% of Burrow’s targets.
Higgins slightly underperformed his expected TD total while Ja’Marr Chase overperformed
Higgins stands at an impressive 6’4″ and looks the part of a dominant red-zone target. However, it was Chase who scored 13 touchdowns last season against just six for Higgins. Based upon expected TD rates, Higgins should’ve scored about seven while Chase should’ve been closer to nine.
There’s no reason Higgins can’t be the guy who hits double-digits this season, even if Chase’s efficiency remains above league-average.
Higgins is our consensus-ranked WR15 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings, so we’re right in line with ADP. Feel free to draft him as early as any point in the third round. He’s a young, improving player tethered to an elite QB with a sky-high ceiling. Only one or two teams are capable of producing two WR1s in fantasy football each season. The Bengals could easily be that team in 2022.