The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Over a full year recovered from his torn ACL, how early should Barkley go in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
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Saquon Barkley ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to prime draft season for fantasy football, Barkley currently has an ADP of 21, coming off the board as the RB12. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, he’s currently the RB11 with an ADP of 15, showing a more bullish outlook on the year.
I fall more in line with PFN’s rankings. While they are a consensus, I have Barkley as my RB10 at 16th overall. However, be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Football is more fun when good players are playing well. I know we don’t agree on much, but I feel this should be universal. I really want Barkley to come out with a chip on his shoulder and burn the world to the ground. So far, that seems to be Barkley’s mentality.
When healthy, Barkley is electric and could even be considered a top-three RB in the NFL based on talent. Most players who come back from an ACL tear will say while they might be medically cleared, it can take multiple seasons to genuinely feel back to where they were pre-injury. So personally, it was not surprising to see Barkley struggle. He needed to trust his knee again.
Barkley has no competition for touches and should see anywhere from 215 to 240 this season, which could also bring in 50 or more receptions. To find that level of opportunity in the third round doesn’t happen. While I do prefer him as my RB2, I wouldn’t have any reservations about grabbing Barkley in Round 2, but it all comes down to whether or not you believe he stays healthy. As for me, I’ll take the ADP discount and bet on Barkley bouncing back in 2022 for fantasy.
Saquon Barkley’s projected fantasy value in 2022
I don’t like when people call Barkley injury-prone. I see him as not injury-prone, but unlucky. In 2019, Barkley had his ankle stepped on in Week 5 against Dallas, and it swelled up like a beachball on the sidelines. That’s not on him. Then, in 2020, it was the ACL. These are not reoccurring hamstring or other soft-tissue injuries. Sometimes, guys just get unlucky.
Barkley came back too soon on the ankle, but you saw at the end of 2019, when he averaged 31.6 PPR/game over the last three weeks, what he could do when healthy. Even in that season, while playing in 10 games, Barkley still cracked 1,000 yards rushing. You don’t just do that by accident.
It all comes down to one number, though: 18. That’s how many games Barkley has missed over the last two seasons.
If you believe Barkley can play in 14+ games, there is little reason to fade him. The Giants have a new offense under Brian Daboll, which is getting him in space more often while also projected to utilize him in the passing game closer to what we saw with Eli Manning. While it won’t be 121 targets, his 73 in 2019 is a possibility due to the lack of healthy WRs that have plagued this offense.
I can make a case for Barkley to be as high as a top-five or even a top-three running back, but there’s no value in that. It also doesn’t leave any room for median outcomes. In the second round, there is not a pick with more upside than Barkley.