Raheem Mostert has followed Mike McDaniel from San Francisco to the Miami Dolphins, but what impact has that move had on his fantasy football value? Can Mostert’s current ADP provide value in 2022 fantasy drafts, or is his role in Miami set to be too diluted for the price you have to pay?
Raheem Mostert ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Mostert’s current ADP in redraft leagues is just outside of the top 140 overall in all formats. His ADP is similar in non-PPR and PPR leagues but marginally lower in half-PPR. In all three formats, Mostert is being selected in the RB46-52 region on average. There is an intriguing spread in Mostert’s ADP, with some sites seeing him go off the board in the 120s, with others seeing him selected as low as the 180s.
In a 12-team league, the 140th selection is in the middle of the 12th round. That means that Mostert is largely being selected as a bench option in a 12-team league. As we look deeper, Mostert is a borderline starter in 14-team leagues. Meanwhile, in 16-team formers or bigger, Mostert is essentially being selected as a flex option.
Mostert’s projected fantasy value in 2022
There might be no more frustrating fantasy asset to evaluate than Mostert. When on the field, he is usually extremely productive, averaging over 5.7 yards per attempt in his career. Unfortunately, over the past three seasons, he has just played just 603 snaps and taken 243 carries. He has never managed more than 137 carries in a single season.
If we look back to 2020, we can see just how productive Mostert can be for fantasy. He averaged 10.5 points per game in non-PPR and 12.5 in PPR. While those numbers themselves do not stand out, his early season performances do. In Week 1 of the season, he had 21.1 fantasy points and backed that up with 16.7 in Week 2. After that, he struggled with injuries and only topped 10 fantasy points in non-PPR once more.
The Dolphins have a crowded RB room
The Dolphins appear to have somewhat decided just to throw darts at the RB position and hope something sticks. They gave Chase Edmonds a big deal as a free agent and added Mostert and Sony Michel. Those additions were to an RB room that already included Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Gerrid Doaks. That is a lot of potential options to split reps and carries during the offseason.
On the Dolphins’ depth chart released during the preseason, Mostert and Edmonds were both listed as being first-team players. That makes a lot of sense because Mostert has proven his worth as a rusher, while Edmonds is a very talented receiving back who can contribute to the run game.
The problem is that those two roles could eat into each other. If Mostert never catches passes, teams will know the plan when he checks in and vice versa for Edmonds. Therefore, while Edmonds should dominate backfield targets, we have no idea how the rush attempts will be split. Mike McDaniel has been in San Francisco and seen the durability issues for Mostert. Therefore, it would be a shock for him to suddenly have Mostert taking 15-20 touches a game from Week 1.
Additionally, there is the risk of Michel or Gaskin stealing touches, especially in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Then there is the element that the 49ers’ offense has tended to prioritize a lead running back, so this multi-back system seems confusing. There is also fullback Alec Ingold, who could have the role of Kyle Juszczyk to complicate matters further.
Should you draft Mostert in 2022?
Mostert’s current ADP is spot on his value. In PFN’s consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings, Mostert is in that RB5 region across all formats, almost exactly where his ADP is. His overall ranking may seem elevated compared to his ADP, with a ranking as high as 123 in non-PPR. However, our rankings do not include defense or kickers, so when comparing to ADP, it is best to look at the positional ranking.
If Mostert is going to be your last-round pick, I am all for it. Unless we hear definitively, we do not know the exact split in Miami. The belief is that Edmonds is the No. 1, but Mostert could certainly have his moments. Furthermore, Mostert would be the clear No. 1 if Edmonds was to get hurt. So, stashing him on your bench in case of an injury Mostert is a smart move.
You likely will not start Mostert early in the season, and that could create issues if you need to go to the waiver wire. Mostert is a solid stash, but he very much feels injury-dependent. If we see Edmonds dominating attempts, and you need a roster spot for someone who can contribute immediately, Mostert may have to be the player you drop.
However, I am willing to spend a late-round selection on Mostert and hold on to for as long as possible. If Edmonds does get hurt, Mostert could be a high-opportunity option for fantasy. It may only last a few weeks, but he can be a potential matchup winner. Those players are exactly who you want to invest in with late-round selections.