The Tampa Bay Buccaneers loaded up at wide receiver this offseason, but Mike Evans returns as the leader. Will Evans produce enough to be on your fantasy football roster, and what is his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Mike Evans ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Evans’ current ADP is 26th overall as the ninth wide receiver selected in fantasy drafts. This means he’s being taken in the third round of PPR leagues. Other players drafted in his range include Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb.
Our 2022 fantasy football WR rankings have Evans ranked as the 29th overall player and the 12th wide receiver in PPR leagues. Although we have Evans slightly lower overall, the three-receiver gap between his ranking and his ADP is fairly significant. Drafters are paying a higher price for consistency. It’s not a bad strategy considering Evans finished sixth in receiver scoring thanks to his 14 touchdowns.
Fellow star receiver Chris Godwin will miss some time at the start of the regular season as he returns from a torn ACL. For as talented as Julio Jones and Russell Gage are, neither compare to Evans’ impact with Tom Brady.
Evans has reached 1,000 yards in each of his eight NFL seasons. His touchdown total has jumped significantly with Brady, even if his yardage has dropped. He’s totaled 27 scores over the last two years after averaging just under seven from 2017-2019.
That type of scoring prowess gives Evans unique fantasy value for managers. He can swing almost any given matchup, but you may suffer through lower-production weeks when he doesn’t score. Evans is a unicorn fantasy receiver, but there’s absolutely value in rostering him.
Mike Evans’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Ranked as the fourth most-productive receiver in the red zone in 2021 with an absurd 70% catch rate and 10 touchdowns, Evans is almost solely reliant on TDs compared to the top fantasy receivers. It’s great that he’ll surely reach 1,000 yards once again, but averaging about 65 yards each week isn’t a huge upside.
Evans’ value comes from touchdowns. If he’s not producing them, he’s a Flex option at best. The loss of Rob Gronkowski provides a reason for optimism that Evans will continue to score at such a uniquely high level, but there’s always the risk of regression. I believe that risk is worthwhile, even if the list of receivers being drafted around Evans has some promise.
The reality is neither Allen, A.J. Brown, nor Tee Higgins have a pathway to Evans’ scoring ability. Each will have to claw their way to 1,000 yards as well. Evans, however, is the one with the TD potential to differentiate him.
The biggest decision to make is whether you’d rather have Michael Pittman Jr. or Courtland Sutton in this range. It’s a bit like debating whether you’d have the sure thing who’s been a good starter or someone who could reach that level or slightly higher. The benefit of the other options is if you can nab them a round later and not over Evans.
You’ll sleep well if you roster Evans, even if it’s as a WR1 and you pair him with another receiver the next round. You can certainly win a league with that setup.