Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl in his first season with the Rams. He is now another year more integrated into the offense and has some of the best weapons in the NFL and fantasy football. What is Stafford’s current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Matthew Stafford ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Stafford’s ADP is around 87th overall. He’s being drafted as the QB12. Coming off a season where he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns, this feels like a steal. Welcome to the modern NFL. 20.4 fantasy points per game just isn’t what it used to be.
You certainly won’t lose your league by drafting Stafford. I tend to wait on quarterback. If I do so again, and Stafford is there in the double-digit rounds, I’m in. I just wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to draft him.
Elbow issue aside, Stafford is an extremely safe pick. He’s a lock to finish as at least a high-end QB2. It’s why he’s an excellent late-round QB target. Not sure what to do at QB? Grab Stafford. Pair him with an upside guy like Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence. And just hope either sophomore quarterback plays well enough to take Stafford’s job.
Matthew Stafford’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The reality is we likely just saw Stafford’s ceiling. Last season, he was one of 11 QBs who averaged over 20 fantasy points per game.
A decade ago, 20.4 ppg would’ve had Stafford ranked amongst the elite. As recently as five years ago, he would’ve been a top-three quarterback. In 2021, 20.4 ppg gave Stafford just a QB9 finish (minimum eight games played).
Last season, Stafford threw for 4,886 yards and an impressive 41 touchdowns. He also completed a career-high 67.2% of his passes. Given how incredible Stafford’s season was, how come he wasn’t more productive from a fantasy perspective?
The issue isn’t Stafford. He played just about as well as he could. The issue is everyone else. The average quarterback in the NFL is way more talented than he was 10, 15, and 20 years ago. Offenses pass and score more.
And, of course, there’s the mobility factor. Most modern quarterbacks have some degree of mobility. Not everyone has to be Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, but most quarterbacks can at least take off when they need to.
Stafford can’t really do that. He rushed for just 43 yards last season. Someone like Hurts is able to throw for 1,772 fewer yards and 25 fewer touchdowns than Stafford yet average a full point per game more than him. Even a 40-touchdown season can’t beat out a rushing QB.
It’s impossible to ask Stafford to be better this season than he was in 2021. He may be as good, but he’s unlikely to be better. What he was able to do in 2021 was good for a low-end QB1 finish. That’s why Stafford’s ADP is once again as a low-end QB1, and we have him ranked as our consensus QB10.
Impact of the Rams’ depth chart on Stafford’s fantasy value
The Rams took a bit of a hit on the offensive line with Andrew Whitworth retiring. Other than that, this offense looks pretty strong once again. Cooper Kupp is back, which is really all Stafford needs. But just in case, the Rams added Allen Robinson as well. He will replace Robert Woods, who was traded to Tennessee, and Odell Beckham, who remains unsigned as he recovers from his Super Bowl ACL tear.
They also bring back Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, and will have a healthy Cam Akers. This offense should very much resemble the one we saw last season. The only change I anticipate is a bit more running as head coach Sean McVay looks to protect Stafford’s elbow as much as possible.
The Rams are still a pass-first offense
The Rams passed at a 59% rate last season. That’s great news for Stafford’s fantasy value. However, they only ran 60 plays per game, which was one of the slowest paces of play in the league. Fantasy managers would like to see them get closer to the 66 plays per game they ran in 2020. My concern is the Rams may want to slow the game down in general to protect Stafford.
Stafford is dealing with elbow tendinitis. He managed it last year, and obviously it worked out quite well as the Rams won the Super Bowl. Ideally, though, he wouldn’t be playing through pain. To help facilitate that, Stafford had an offseason procedure on his elbow. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to have worked, as Stafford is already having his reps limited.
The good news is whenever Stafford does throw, he looks fine. It sure appears to be a pain tolerance issue. In that case, Stafford should be okay, as he is one of the toughest players in the NFL. But it would be cavalier of us not to be at least a little concerned.
The Rams will certainly throw when they need to. McVay is not about to lose games because he’s afraid to let his quarterback throw. But it would behoove the team to ease the burden on Stafford if they can. So, we could see a little more running this season.
Stafford should be fantasy managers’ backup plan
No one should enter a fantasy draft targeting Stafford. He just doesn’t have the necessary upside. Meanwhile, the injury poses a substantial downside risk, even if it’s not a high one.
Stafford is a high-floor quarterback who can be your starter all season long. He won’t win you many matchups, but he won’t lose any, either. It feels weird to consider a 40-touchdown guy a late-round QB target, but that’s exactly what Stafford is in 2022.