Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette reestablished himself as an elite RB1 in the 2021 season. What is Fournette’s current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Leonard Fournette ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Fournette’s ADP is around 22nd overall as the RB13. It’s one of the most mindboggling, explicable ADPs I’ve ever seen. The last time an ADP was off by this much was when Tyreek Hill was somehow going in the third round ahead of the 2018 season. I can’t tell you why Fournette’s ADP is so low. All I can say is draft him.
It doesn’t matter where I’m picking in the second round, I’m taking Fournette. In our 2022 fantasy football rankings, he’s ranked as our consensus RB8, and for good reason.
Fournette was the overall RB3 last season, averaging 18.3 PPR fantasy points per game. He’s a rare three-down back who catches passes and receives goal-line carries.
It’s not just volume — Fournettes is good at football. There’s just no conceivable argument against him as a first-round pick. Yet, he’s available consistently throughout the second round. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Leonard Fournette’s projected fantasy value in 2022
For some reason, Fournette was viewed as a disappointment prior to reviving his career in Tampa Bay. In 2017, Fournette averaged 17.7 ppg as a rookie. Although his production dipped a bit as a sophomore in 2018, he still averaged 15.1 ppg in the eight games he played. Then, in 2019, Fournette was right back at 17.3 ppg.
Somehow, this resulted in the Jaguars giving up on him and cutting him. Fournette then signed with the Bucs and the rest is history.
Last season, Fournette operated as an every-down back in a Tom Brady offense. Although he’s not a receiver on the level of Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara, Fournette still tied with D’Andre Swift to lead all running backs with six targets per game. Fournette is a capable pass catcher, and Brady utilizes him heavily in that area.
Impact of the Bucs’ depth chart on Fournette’s fantasy value
What exactly has changed for Fournette’s outlook? Brady is back. Russell Gage, and to a lesser extent, Julio Jones replace Antonio Brown. Mike Evans is still the WR1 while Chris Godwin will be the WR2 when he’s fully ready to return. If anything, the changes the Bucs have undergone benefit Fournette.
Tight end and running back target shares are more correlated than running backs and wide receivers. Rob Gronkowski is retired, and it will be Kyle Rudolph and Cameron Brate replacing him. Neither is commanding any significant target share. Everything about Fournette’s profile and the Bucs’ depth chart points to another elite season as long as he can stay healthy.
Ronald Jones also isn’t on the team anymore. Sure, the Bucs drafted Rachaad White in the third round, but I don’t view him as a threat to Fournette’s workload. Meanwhile, Ke’Shawn Vaughn is nothing more than the backup two-down grinder.
Last season, Fournette averaged 4.5 yards per carry while being the most heavily targeted running back in the NFL. He plays on one of the best offenses in football (the Bucs’ 63 touchdowns were second-most in the NFL last season behind the Cowboys), which gives him high-TD upside (Fournette’s 54 red-zone touches were third-most among RBs).
Fournette should once again have one of the highest opportunity shares in the league. I struggle to envision any scenario outside of Brady falling off a cliff where a healthy Fournette isn’t a top-eight RB once again.
Of course, Fournette could get hurt. He missed the final month of last season with a strained hamstring. But so can any running back, so don’t draft scared. A healthy Fournette has a great chance to reach 20 ppg this season.