Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson enters this season looking to rebound after a down year riddled by injuries to himself and his supporting cast. What is Jackson’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Lamar Jackson ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Jackson’s ADP is around 43rd overall, and he’s being drafted as the QB4. Jackson’s price reflects that fantasy managers aren’t punishing him for his underwhelming 2021 campaign.
For all the criticisms Jackson received, he still averaged 21.1 fantasy points per game last season and was the overall QB7. That’s the beauty of Jackson — his floor is so incredibly high. And we know his ceiling is overall QB1 because he did it in 2019.
Right in line with ADP, Jackson is our consensus QB4 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings. I personally have Jackson ranked as my QB2, so I’m fully in on him at his price. The problem I find myself running into is even when he falls into the fifth round, there are so many desirable running backs and wide receivers in that area.
While I do love Jackson this season, it’s hard to justify taking him in the fourth or fifth round when I can get another QB 3-5 rounds later who will still produce 20 ppg. As a result, I’m only taking Jackson if I look down at the draft board and don’t see anything that jumps out at me anywhere else.
Lamar Jackson’s projected fantasy value in 2022
I feel like Jackson’s 2021 season is viewed negatively because the expectations were so high. There was a time when Jackson’s 21.1 ppg would’ve been top three at the position. If anything, the fact that he averaged over 20 ppg despite losing his top three running backs, half his offensive line, and his entire defense, is a testament to his ability.
In 2019, Jackson averaged 28.2 ppg, and he won NFL MVP. It was the second-greatest fantasy season of all time at the quarterback position. He’s not getting there again, but he doesn’t have to. If Jackson so much as averages 24 ppg, he’ll justify his ADP.
Just about everything that could’ve gone wrong for the Ravens last season, did. J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill all sustained season-ending injuries before they even played a game. The Ravens lost multiple offensive linemen, and at one point, had a full starting defense worth of players on IR. No team lost more expected games due to injury than Baltimore.
With the Ravens unable to block and constantly playing from behind, Jackson had to throw more than ever. He attempted 31.8 passes per game. It was, by far, the highest rate of his career. Yet, he still managed to average 63.9 yards rushing per game — only a slight dip from the previous season.
The biggest difference for Jackson was the lack of touchdowns. Jackson averaged just 1.5 touchdowns per game in 2021 compared to 2.2 in 2020 and 2.8 in 2021. With a healthy roster, Jackson should easily be able to get back over two touchdowns per game and give fantasy managers a high-end QB1 season.
Impact of the Ravens’ depth chart on Jackson’s fantasy value
We know Jackson’s strength is his rushing, but it would still be nice if the team got him a competent WR2. No disrespect to Devin Duvernay or James Proche, but you will be hard-pressed to find a weaker WR2 and WR3 in the NFL.
The Ravens’ biggest offseason move was trading away Marquise Brown during the 2022 NFL Draft. Shockingly, they didn’t replace him either through the draft or free agency.
I do believe Rashod Bateman is very capable of being a WR1. And technically, Mark Andrews is the “WR1.” Jackson will funnel the vast majority of his targets through those two players.
Without a reliable third option, health of the roster permitting, look for the Ravens’ offense to look more like the 2019 version. This is great news for Jackson’s fantasy value. Normally, we want our quarterbacks throwing. While Jackson is a much better passer than he gets credit for, the fantasy value is in the best rushing QB since Michael Vick.
Jackson should run more this year
Jackson’s pass attempts per game will come down this season. I can say that with confidence. The rushing numbers weren’t that much lower than you’d expect last season, but they will inevitably increase with a renewed commitment to the ground. Thus, Jackson has a great chance to exceed 70 yards rushing per game.
As for the touchdowns, whether they come on the ground or through the air will be mostly random. For fantasy purposes, it doesn’t matter that much, as long as there are a bunch of them.
Jackson is very much in play to challenge Josh Allen for the overall QB1 this season. If you are going to spend a relatively early-round pick on a QB in fantasy drafts, Jackson is the guy to target.