The 2022 fantasy football season is underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Jefferson reach another level in his game this year, and how early should the third-year standout go in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
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Justin Jefferson ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
It’s prime draft season for fantasy football, and the Vikings’ Jefferson currently has an ADP of 6, coming off the board as the WR2. For comparison, Cooper Kupp is going around one pick before him as the WR1 (ADP 5) with Ja’Marr Chase the WR3 (ADP 9).
In my personal rankings and PFN’s consensus 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Jefferson is also the WR2 but with an ADP of 4, showing an equally bullish outlook. However, be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
There is absolutely a debate worth having between the top three receivers, and a case could be made for Kupp, Jefferson, or Chase to be the WR1 in 2022. Of the three, Kupp and Jefferson have just pulled slightly away and become almost a micro tier of their own.
Anyone wanting to take Jefferson as the No. 1 receiver won’t hear an argument from me. This is an offense moving in the right direction, and Jefferson is already a top-five receiver in the NFL. Personally, it’s just hard to overlook what Kupp did with Matthew Stafford, and while projecting regression, not see him as the favorite to lead the position again.
If I have a top-five pick in 2022, I’m taking one of five players: Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Kupp, Jefferson, or Chase, and in that order. If you are in the back half and one of those names is there, I’d jump on it.
Justin Jefferson’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Jefferson came into the NFL a man possessed, further trying to showcase LSU as the real “WR University.” His 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, and seven touchdowns not only smashed Randy Moss’ rookie records but also led him to win the Pepsi Rookie of the Year award.
Yet, to follow it up with an even better performance in Year 2 only further proved it was no fluke. Jefferson followed up his rookie season with 108 receptions on 167 targets for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns. His 3,032 yards are the most in NFL history for a player through their first two years in the league. Jefferson’s only getting better and not yet in his prime.
After posting a WR6 finish and 17.1 PPR points per game as a rookie, Jefferson put up 19.4 ppg and finished as the WR4 in 2021. For a player who specialized with deeper aDOT targets (league-leading 2,218 intended air yards in 2021), Jefferson is shockingly consistent from a fantasy perspective. In his 33 active games, Jefferson has finished as a WR1 33% of the time. He’s finished as a WR2 (top 24 or better) in 66% of his games. In 2021, 82% of his games (14) saw him finish inside the top 24.
As a comparison, Chase was the WR5 in PPR formats (17.9 PPR/game), he was a WR1 in just 29% of his games, and a WR2 or better (top 24) in 41%. Kupp was the only one more consistent than Jefferson, with his 94% top-24 rate and 88% WR1 rate.
After accounting for 38% of the intended air yards in 2020, Jefferson saw a staggering 51.6% in 2022. It was the highest individual total of any receiver in the league, followed by A.J. Brown (45.7%), Terry McLaurin (42.4%), and DJ Moore (41.7%). Jefferson’s 29.2% target share was also third-most behind only Kupp (32.4%) and Davante Adams (31.36%).
As far as the 2022 season is concerned, we might not have seen the best from Jefferson. He should benefit from an even more passing-centric scheme in a new offense under Kevin O’Connell, one that has been noted all offseason of focusing on verticality and explosiveness.
When you combine everything, looking at the schematic changes and how they fit with Jefferson’s strength and his projected usage, there is a reason so many believe he could be the No. 1 wideout. I’m right there with them even if I do give the edge to Kupp. There’s no denying how special Jefferson is.