The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Julio Jones’ ADP in fantasy football drafts to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, can Jones produce a vintage performance, or will Father Time prove once again to be undefeated?
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Julio Jones ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
The minute you believe you have the NFL figured out, in comes this cold hard slap of reality to remind you you don’t know half as much as you think you do. And for a while, it looked like Mike Evans would have to play a solo act until Chris Godwin returned from his torn ACL from last year. Yet, in the words of the American icon Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”
Tampa Bay pulled a trump card with training camp set to take off by signing one of the best of his generation, future Hall of Famer and former All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones.
Fantasy managers haven’t had a lot of time to react. That’s why you’re seeing Jones go all over the board in both mock drafts and actual startups. Those in one camp believe Jones is a shell of his former self. There are also just as many on the other side who know how good a healthy Jones could be in 2022.
I feel this is why we see his ADP yet to stabilize fully. Currently, Jones is the WR54 off the boards, according to FantasyPros, with an ADP of 142. For reference, Evans’ overall ADP is 26 as the WR9. Godwin is the WR22 with a 59 ADP, and Russell Gage is the WR51 with a 375 ADP. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Jones is the WR57 as the 140th overall ranked player
As the WR57, I’m in on Jones for fantasy football in 2022 because there’s not much risk involved. If Jones was in the top 30, then yes, I would have to pause for quite some time before selecting him. But at the very end of the 13th round, Jones is nothing but upside, considering that he’s going after Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Mecole Hardman, and right there with Kenny Golladay, Christian Watson, and Jameson Williams.
Although I wouldn’t want my Week 1 roster relying on Jones, I have zero issues with him being one of my WR depth pieces to stash on the bench. When healthy, Jones is likely a flex play at worst in PPR formats for 2022.
Julio Jones’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Jones is one of the best receivers of this generation. I don’t feel that is debatable. He holds the NFL record for average receiving yardage per game (91.9) across his 11 years. Included in that is seven of eight seasons with 1,000+ receiving yards, including five straight (2012-2018) with 1,390+ yards. Jones was also the model of consistency, playing in 13 games in all but one season (2013), where a foot injury ended his season after five games.
During his stretch of greatness, Jones was a top-eight WR for six straight seasons (2014-2019), averaged 19 PPR/game between 2011 and 2019, and was a WR2 or better in 62% of his 125 active games. Those are silly numbers.
Then, 2020 hit, and Jones seemed to have hit a wall. Hamstring injuries have plagued Jones over the last two seasons. He’s played in just 19 of a possible 33 games over the previous two seasons for the Falcons and Titans.
Jones hit bottom in 2021, recording just 31 receptions for 434 yards and one touchdown. Nevertheless, when healthy, Jones was solid despite playing in a run-first offense. In six healthy games, Jones was top 10 in YPRR while averaging 11.7 PPR/game. That’s essentially backend WR3 territory.
Jones could be a fantasy gold mine with the Buccaneers
Tampa is anything but run first. In fact, the Buccaneers were the NFL’s fastest (26.5 seconds per snap) and pass-happiest offense (67% pass rate) in 2021. That’s not likely to change in 2022.
Rewind back to last year, and we saw this offense when healthy support three elite wide receivers with Evans, Godwin, and Antonio Brown. There’s no reason Tom Brady can’t do that again this year.
Although Godwin avoided the PUP list to start training camp, I’m not overly bullish on how efficient he will be to start the season. Tampa Bay is playing for a Super Bowl, not a Week 1 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. There’s a long game to keep in mind.
Even when Godwin is back on the field, and there is a full complement of receivers — including Gage — this is not bad for Jones. Sure, it might annoy a fantasy manager at times, but using Jones’ snaps wisely during the regular season could lead to more plays as they manage his snaps later in the year. That’s a trade-off I’d be more than willing to make for fantasy. I will take 80% of Jones now to get 100% of him when it’s crunch time in the fantasy football playoffs.