Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon finally had the elite RB1 season many of us pined for over the past three seasons. What is Mixon’s current ADP in fantasy drafts, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Joe Mixon ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Mixon’s ADP is the RB7 and is being drafted around 10th overall. Typically, when we get to the very top of fantasy drafts, ADP is pretty sharp. That’s the case here with Mixon. Consensually, we have Mixon ranked RB4 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings, which is definitely above ADP. However, I personally have him ranked at RB6.
I’m not one to push making the safe pick, and Mixon is a very safe pick. However, he’s not just a floor play. Mixon’s perceived lack of ceiling stems from Samaje Perine replacing him in clear passing situations. His limited receiving role does take overall RB1 out of the equation for Mixon, but he can still post a top-three season on TD efficiency alone.
Going 10th overall feels about right for Mixon. I wouldn’t take him over the big three wide receivers, and there are five other running backs I prefer. Stefon Diggs could also go either way depending on how I’m feeling at that moment. That puts Mixon right at his ADP.
Joe Mixon’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Since 2018, we’ve been waiting for Mixon’s truly elite season. The irony is despite him not getting there, he wasn’t exactly bad between 2018-2020. Mixon averaged 17.4 PPR fantasy points per game in 2018, 14.1 in 2019, and 16.6 in 2020. And yet, the perception of Mixon was that he was a disappointment.
Mixon apologists, myself included, blamed pretty much everything but Mixon. It was the bad offensive line. It was Andy Dalton. It was poor coaching. And you know what, I stand by that!
In 2021, Cincinnati reached the Super Bowl behind a complete roster that saw improved (but still not great) OL play. That’s all Mixon needed to finally have his elite RB1 season.
Mixon averaged 18 ppg and finished as the overall RB5 (minimum eight games played). He rushed for 1,205 yards and 13 touchdowns on 292 carries while adding a career-high 42 receptions for 314 yards and three more touchdowns through the air.
Impact of the Bengals’ depth chart on Mixon’s fantasy value
Keeping their offense almost entirely the same, the Bengals didn’t make things difficult for us to evaluate. Joe Burrow will funnel over half his passes to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Another decent chunk of them will go to Tyler Boyd, and the run game will funnel through Mixon. Of Cincinnati’s 976 combined rushes and pass attempts last season, 68.8% went to those four players.
The biggest negative on Mixon’s profile is his reduced receiving work relative to what we think he’s capable of. The best hope for another strong RB1 season from Mixon is not an increase in receiving volume (because that’s not happening), it’s an increase in efficiency.
The Bengals have a better roster in 2022 than they did in 2021. Despite a tough schedule, this is a team that shouldn’t fall behind by multiple scores very often. They should be able to run their offense the way they want to, which includes not having Mixon game scripted out due to the score.
Despite their overall improvements last season, Cincinnati’s offensive line was still a weak point. Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times, and unsurprisingly, they didn’t run block particularly well either as Mixon averaged just 1.6 yards before contact.
With very few holes remaining on the roster, the Bengals finally committed to fixing their offensive line by signing former Cowboys tackle La’el Collins, former Bucs guard Alex Cappa, and former Patriots center Ted Karras. Cincinnati also selected North Dakota State offensive lineman Cordell Volson in Round 4 of the 2022 NFL Draft. All of these additions will only help Mixon improve his efficiency.
Without passing-game work, Mixon will admittedly face an uphill battle to reach the coveted 20 ppg threshold we want from supposedly elite players. At the same time, Mixon is an extremely talented player who is locked into 15+ carries per game and goal-line work on what should be a top-five offense. There is 20-TD upside in Mixon, and he’s a surefire first-round pick in 2022 fantasy football drafts.