J.K. Dobbins is set to return to fantasy football lineups after missing last season with an injury. Now the key is whether Dobbins can get back to the level he demonstrated as a rookie when he burst onto the scene, or has the injury taken a toll? Let’s examine Dobbins’ ADP in 2022 fantasy football drafts and see if he has a chance to present value on that price this season.
J.K. Dobbins ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Dobbins’ current ADP for redraft leagues varies over around half a round across the three-main scoring formats: non-PPR, half-PPR, and full-PPR. His ADP is highest in PPR at 52 overall and the RB23. In non-PPR and half-PPR, he sits as the RB24 and RB25 as the 54th and 59th player off the board, respectively.
Therefore, Dobbins is largely viewed as a fifth-round pick in 12-team leagues and a sixth-round pick in 10-team leagues. His value across the various sites fluctuates from as high as 28th overall at RB20 through to 81 overall as the RB30. It’s important to be prepared for where Dobbins might go based on the respective sites you’re drafting on.
J.K. Dobbins’ projected fantasy value in 2022
Dobbins performed well for fantasy managers the last time we saw him on the field. In 15 games, he took his 134 rush attempts for 805 yards and nine touchdowns. He averaged six yards per rush attempt and 6.7 yards per reception to finish with 925 yards from scrimmage on just 152 touches. Then, heading into 2021, Dobbins tore his ACL and was ruled out for the year.
For a large part of the offseason, the Baltimore Ravens appeared bullish on Dobbins being able to return for Week 1. However, that confidence faded the closer we got. After Week 3 of the preseason, Ian Rapoport reported that Dobbins was a doubt for Week 1. Then the team went out and added veteran depth at RB in Kenyan Drake. They already had Mike Davis and chose to cut Tyler Badie before adding Drake.
The fact that the Ravens cut a rookie, even if they did add him to the practice squad, but could find room for Drake sends alarm bells ringing about Dobbins. Adding a veteran this close to the season would indicate the Ravens are looking for someone to play a role in Week 1, and they don’t believe Badie is ready. That would signal that Dobbins is unlikely to feature heavily, if at all, in Week 1.
This puts fantasy managers in a tricky spot. The last time we saw Dobbins, he looked great, but knee injuries can be tricky for running backs. Some look fine on their return, while others struggle. We have no real clue which way it will go with Dobbins. All we know is that he may not be a useable fantasy asset until a few weeks into the season.
The Ravens’ RB usage is frustrating
Even when Dobbins returns, his usage is far from certain. Since Lamar Jackson started, only Mark Ingram in 2019 has had over 200 rushing attempts. Since then, the Ravens have spread their rushing attempts around the various parts of their run game. Yet, it’s been a strange two seasons, with the passing of responsibilities from Ingram to Dobbins in 2020 and then the multiple injuries in 2021.
Therefore, we don’t truly know how the Ravens will utilize their backs. The ideal goal might be to get Dobbins the 13.5 rushing attempts per game that Ingram saw in 2019. While that would limit his ceiling, it would certainly be preferable to the split we saw over the last two years.
Targets are also a concern. In 2019 and 2020, no back had more than two targets per game. Devonta Freeman saw 2.63 as the lead back last year, but that appears to be the target ceiling for backs in this offense. Therefore, the most optimistic outlook for usage as the Ravens’ lead back is around 16.5 opportunities per game. That would be around 280 total opportunities on a 17-game pace and in the region of 260-270 touches, depending on the catch rate.
Unfortunately, that appears to be the ceiling if all goes to plan rather than the median outcome. The median outcome appears closer to 13-14 opportunities and 12-13 touches per game for the lead back. That severely limits both Dobbins’ ceiling and floor for this season.
Should you draft Dobbins in 2022?
Dobbins’ fantasy value has twisted back and forth during the summer. As he appeared on track to return for Week 1, while Gus Edwards flagged behind, he climbed up draft boards. There was always the risk of Dobbins not being ready for Week 1, but it seemed more likely than not. Now it’s up in the air again, and that is concerning.
What we know is that when Dobbins is healthy, he should be the RB1 in this offense. A second back will get their touches, but Dobbins should lead the team on a per-game basis. However, that uncertainty has meant he sits outside the top 24 across the formats in PFN’s consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings. That uncertainty prevents Dobbins from being a clear RB2 in 12-team leagues, but there is certainly the upside and talent to be a weekly RB2.
Whether you should draft Dobbins at his current ADP is a tough call for fantasy managers. He is a relatively known quantity when he steps on the field, but we don’t know when that will be. We also know his ceiling is capped by a relative limit on opportunities, and that also caps the floor.