Jerry Jeudy’s fantasy football value has seen some fluctuations during the 2022 offseason. Following a mixed season last year, with a new head coach and quarterback in town, things certainly look very different in Denver. What is Jeudy’s ADP in 2022 fantasy football drafts as it stands, and should you consider him at that price?
Jerry Jeudy ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Jeudy’s current ADP in redraft fantasy leagues has an intriguing spread across the three main scoring formats. His ADP in PPR and half-PPR leagues is in the region of the 60th player off the board. However, that drops to 65th in non-PPR. Confusingly though, Jeudy is the WR22 in half-PPR, but the WR27 and WR28 in non-PPR and PPR, respectively.
The main reason for those confusing ADPs is that Jeudy is going as high as 50th overall as the WR20 on Sleeper, but as low as 80th overall and outside the top 30 WRs on RTSports. Therefore, it is important to check your site’s respective ADPs before your draft to see where Jeudy is tending to fall.
Jerry Jeudy’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Jeudy is a hard player to pin down because his first two years have seen a huge contrast in role and performance. He saw over seven targets per game on average as a rookie but caught just 46 percent of them with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 13.5. In 2021, he averaged 5.6 targets per game but caught 67.9 percent of them with an ADOT of 10.5.
In his rookie year, Jeudy was very much a deep threat but saw heavy usage in that role. Last year, he was targeted closer to the line of scrimmage on average but saw fewer targets per game. It was not even as though he just had some games where he was frozen out last year. He saw three or more targets in every game he played and four or more in nine of them. However, in non-PPR scoring, he never scored double-digit fantasy points and only went over 13 fantasy points once in PPR.
To further complicate matters, nothing looks the same in Denver this year. Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett appear to be upgrades over their predecessors, but we have no idea what that means for Jeudy’s usage this year. Wilson split targets between two main receivers in Seattle last season, but it was tough to trust them week-to-week.
Hackett comes from an offense in Green Bay where there was one lead receiver, and the secondary pass catcher never averaged more than five targets per game. However, he did not call plays or have a second pass catcher as talented as Jeudy at his disposal. If we look back to his days in Jacksonville, where he did call the plays, the passing offense was more balanced across two or three receivers.
Should you draft Jeudy in 2022?
The problem when assessing any player with a new scheme, head coach, and QB is that we really do not know how they will fit into the offense. We can compare Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf to Courtland Sutton and Jeudy, Wilson was playing within a different scheme in Seattle. We can look at Hackett’s time in Green Bay where Davante Adams was hoovering up the WR targets, but Hackett did not call plays there, and Adams was the far superior WR talent on that team.
That is why it is important to look back on Hackett’s time in Jacksonville. He was calling the plays, and multiple receivers each season saw six or more targets per game. The problem is whether an average of six to seven targets per game can be enough to sustain fantasy value for Jeudy. We know that on 5.6 targets per game last year, he was well outside of a usable fantasy option on a per-game basis through the 10 games he played.
That uncertainty is why Jeudy is outside of the top 30 WRs across all formats in PFN’s consensus 2022 WR fantasy rankings. The injury to Tim Patrick in the preseason provided a little more certainty for Jeudy, but there is still a lot of talent to feed in that offense. Sutton is expected to be the WR1, and KJ Hamler should feature in some form after Patrick’s injury. Then there is Albert Okwuegbunam and two talented pass-catching backs.
Projecting Jeudy for anything more than seven targets per game is extremely optimistic at this stage. The Broncos have a strong defense and could, therefore, have a very balanced offense in terms of running and passing the ball. If we project for seven targets per game at around eight yards per target, we are looking at 56 receiving yards on 4.6 receptions per game. That barely reaches WR3 levels in either PPR or non-PPR.
The ceiling is certainly there for Jeudy to be a fantasy-relevant WR, but he is a huge risk based on the unknowns. A final stat line of 120 targets, 80 receptions, 960 yards, and a handful of touchdowns is an optimistic median projection for Jeudy. Even at that level, you are talking about a low-end WR3 across all scoring formats.
At his current ADP, especially on Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo, Jeudy is a huge risk. I would be passing him up at that point for some of the similar options available around his range (Allen Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Adam Thielen). If he slips to the low-end WR3 region in the 85th pick range, the equation changes. At that point, he becomes an intriguing upside play, but with the caveat that he could be someone who disappoints frequently.