Towards the end of the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon flashed that high ceiling we always knew he had. What is McKinnon’s current ADP in fantasy drafts for the 2022 season, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
Jerick McKinnon ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
McKinnon’s ADP is around RB61, and in a typical 12-team league, he goes undrafted a little more than half the time. But I’m not quite sure if that’s right.
There’s a lot of ambiguity in the Chiefs’ backfield. All four of their top running backs have seen reps with the first team in training camp.
We know what the ceiling outcome is for McKinnon in a Patrick Mahomes offense. Even though he’s 30 years old, McKinnon only has 755 career touches. No one is mistaking him for a running back that will see a 70% snap share. However, McKinnon merely needs to win the Chiefs’ primary passing-down back role to secure weekly fantasy value.
In deeper leagues, McKinnon is worth a stab in the later rounds. The upside is there, and you’ll know after Week 1 whether to hang onto him or drop him. In shallower leagues, I still don’t hate the pick, but you’ll probably find yourself interested in players with clearer paths to value.
Jerick McKinnon’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Last season, McKinnon averaged just 2.8 PPR fantasy points per game. He did miss a stretch of time due to injury, but it was only four games. McKinnon just wasn’t a big part of Kansas City’s offense.
Player performance in the NFL playoffs obviously doesn’t help us in fantasy football. But it does matter in projecting how that player may perform next season. The Chiefs first started utilizing McKinnon more in Week 18, in which he posted 14 fantasy points that week.
The real reason we should care about McKinnon is his playoff performance. McKinnon was Kansas City’s primary back, and they actually used him on all three downs. He averaged a 75% snap share and posted games of 26.2, 12.8, and 12.5 fantasy points, respectively.
McKinnon proved in the postseason that his ceiling remains pretty high — certainly higher than most running backs with an ADP as late as his. In our consensus RB rankings, McKinnon currently ranks as the RB64.
Impact of the Chiefs’ depth chart on McKinnon’s fantasy value
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is set to open the season as the Chiefs’ primary running back, but that doesn’t mean he’ll stay there. Heading into his third professional season, CEH hasn’t exactly lived up to the expectations of a first-round NFL draft pick. If Edwards-Helaire continues to struggle, head coach Andy Reid isn’t going to use an inferior RB just because. The Chiefs are not the Dallas Cowboys.
Darrel Williams is now in Arizona, and the RB2 job is really up for grabs behind CEH. Kansas City made two relevant additions at the running back position, signing Ronald Jones in free agency and using a seventh-round draft pick on Isiah Pacheco.
I’m usually the biggest “that sixth or seventh-round player you like doesn’t matter” guy, but I like Pacheco. The fact that he got any first-team reps at all in camp suggests the Chiefs do as well. At the very least, he’s a threat to take a handful of carries and possibly be the primary early-down back if CEH gets hurt.
With that said, Edwards-Helaire, Jones, and Pacheco aren’t exactly elite competition. McKinnon will probably have at least a stretch of fantasy relevance this season, making him a worthwhile stab at the very end of deeper leagues at his ADP.