The 2022 Fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Buffalo Bills WR Jamison Crowder’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value in their fantasy football drafts. With a chance at triple-digit targets in one of the NFL’s top offenses, can Crowder hold off the competition to secure a starting role?
Jamison Crowder ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Having traded one AFC East team for another, Crowder heads into the 2022 fantasy season with a 272 ADP (WR88). For added context, Crowder is going a laughable 260 picks after Stefon Diggs (ADP 12) and 205 behind everyone’s favorite breakout WR Gabriel Davis with an ADP of 67(WR28).
However, the more interesting comparison is between Crowder and his main competition for the starting slot receiver role, Isaiah McKenzie. Currently, McKenzie is going sooner than Crowder in drafts as the WR63 with an ADP of 177. This is a massive swing as McKenzie was in the 80s as a receiver and outside the top 270 picks a month ago.
Earlier this offseason, I called Crowder one of the best signings of the free agency period. I stand by that. He is a (slightly) more explosive receiver than Cole Beasley. In 2019 and 2020, Crowder was averaging 13.2 PPR points with Sam Darnold and Adam Gase, for crying out loud. In the last four years alone, Crowder has averaged nearly two additional yards after the catch than Beasley.
That said, the claim I made on Crowder depended on him winning the job. Yet, according to reporters at Bills camp, that might not be happening. After missing the first week of training camp, McKenzie ran with the first team all week and was a standout performer. What appeared like a solid pick has turned into a full-blown competition, with McKenzie reportedly having won the job outright.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Crowder is the WR87 (211 ADP), with McKenzie the WR54 (1136 ADP). As for me, I have McKenzie at WR50 and Crowder at WR90. As with all rankings, be sure to check back as they will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
I have no issues taking a shot on Crowder at his ADP. But it will take multiple injuries for him to become relevant ona. weekly basis. Crowder went from being the front-runner for the starting position to now the backup slot receiver. While I don’t see either completely dominating the target share, Crowder can be overlooked in current drafts en lieu of McKenzie.
Jamison Crowder’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Whoever wins the slot role is in for a substantial target share. Just over the last three years, Beasley saw 106, 107, and 112 targets. He averaged 12 PPR/game over that span, and while he lacked upside (WR3+ in 74% of his games), you could do much worse for a Flex fill-in.
Buffalo wants to throw the ball — we know this. In fact, the Bills run four-plus wide receiver sets at one of the highest frequencies in the NFL. Yet, with Diggs recording a massive 38% target share since joining, that doesn’t always leave enough to go around.
There should be a new wrinkle added in 2022 with more passing targets going to the running backs, more specifically James Cook, the No. 63 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Bills haven’t exploited this part of their offense before. Last year, the 15.4% target share amongst RBs was only above the Rams, Ravens, and Seahawks.
At the same time, they never had someone as talented of a pass catcher as Cook. There is a logical path where the more targets that go to Cooks, the fewer go to either Dawson Knox at TE or Crowder/McKenzie.
Ideally, fantasy managers need one of Crowder or McKenzie to run away with the job and leave no doubt. That does appear to have happened based on what we have heard, plus which group of players they were with during the preseason. It was McKenzie, not Crowder, receiving the “starter” treatment. For now, it looks as if Crowder will be looking to scoop up the scraps rather that having his plate filled.