Coming off a serious knee injury, what is Jameis Winston’s fantasy football value for the 2022 season as he returns to the New Orleans Saints as the starting QB? Let’s take a look at Winston’s ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts to see whether he a worthwhile selection at his current price.
Jameis Winston ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Winston’s current ADP is as the QB23 off the board across the various sites. It is best to evaluate QB ADPs based on where they rank relative to the position. The reason is that their overall ADP varies hugely depending on whether the format is 1QB or Superflex. A QB that is taken in the second round of a Superflex draft as the QB14 or 15 off the board is likely being selected in the final rounds of a 1QB format. That can be the difference between 130 or 140 selections.
Currently, Winston is being viewed as a late QB2 option in Superflex leagues. His ADP as the QB23 also means that Winston is largely going undrafted in 1QB formats. If he is drafted, it is most likely in the final or second-to-last round. The variation across different sites is not that big, with Winston’s listed ADP no higher than QB20 on RTSports.
Winston’s projected fantasy value in 2022
When you look at Winston’s current ADP, you can make a case that it is both too high and too low at the same time. He averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game last year, although that is somewhat reduced by the game he was injured. If we take out that game where he left early, he averaged 17.9 ppg. That would have been good enough to see him as the QB13 last year.
On that evidence, you would say he is severely undervalued, especially considering the upgrades in this passing offense in 2022. Michael Thomas is back, Jarvis Landry has returned to Louisiana, and Chris Olave was a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft. Contrast that to a starting group of Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Deonte Harty last year, and it is a considerable upgrade in pass-catching talent.
Therefore, it is realistic to expect Winston could be more efficient as a passer and also potentially see an increase in volume. Let’s hypothesize those additions see his returns jump to 20 ppg. That would have been enough to be tied for QB8 last year. Now Winston looks like a tremendous bargain at his current ADP.
The 2021 season was a slightly down year for the QB position. In 2020, 17.9 ppg would have seen Winston as the QB14, while 20 ppg would have seen him as just the QB13. However, if we look at other years, those outputs would have put him right around QB1 value. So what should your approach be with Winston in 2022?
Should you draft Winston in 2022?
Winston is an intriguing player in 2022 fantasy drafts. His current ADP has him undrafted in 1QB leagues and as a late QB2 in Superflex. That appears to present a significant value, even if Winston just reproduces his numbers from last year. A repeat performance should see Winston as a mid QB, at the very least. That is where he currently sits in PFN’s consensus 2022 QB fantasy rankings.
Winston sits in an intriguing tier of QBs, alongside the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Derek Carr, and Tua Tagovailoa. All five of them have the opportunity for upside this year. Which one you select is largely personal preference. Thus, you can really view Winston anywhere between QB15 and 19 for drafts.
At his current ADP, Winston should be a QB you target as your second option in Superflex leagues. Additionally, if you take a gamble with the likes of Trey Lance in a 1QB league, Winston could be a very intriguing backup option if Lance struggles. There is a lot to like about rostering Winston this season.