The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Is Chase set to repeat his historic rookie season, and where should he go in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
Ja’Marr Chase ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Chase currently has an ADP of 9, coming off the board as the WR3. For comparison, Tee Higgins is going around 24 picks later as the WR12 (ADP 33). In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Chase is currently the WR4 with an ADP of 8, showing an equally bullish projection.
In PPR formats, Chase could be a top-five pick and never blink an eye. While for me, Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are the Tier 1, Chase is in a mini tier of his own, if not right in that same top range. Given the questions for some of the running backs, I have zero issues locking in the upside Chase brings and securing someone like Saquon Barkley in Round 2.
There is a debate, though, about who is the better value between himself and Higgins. I have Higgins just outside my top 12 (WR13), but the fact we have two receivers on the same team this high is not the norm and shows how powerful this offense could and should be in 2022.
If you want to secure Chase, do it, but waiting and grabbing Higgins nearly two rounds later is a great move, too. Still, there is no guarantee someone doesn’t take him before you have the chance. If Chase is there, know he will not be the next time you pick, making it the last chance to secure one of the highest-ceiling players on the board.
Ja’Marr Chase’s projected fantasy value in 2022
It’s crazy how much changes in the course of a year. It wasn’t that long ago when every headline questioned why the Bengals took Chase over Penei Sewell. Oh, and the ones saying Chase was struggling to catch the ball because it didn’t have stripes? Those were my personal favorite. Needless to say, he rewrote the narrative and made a lot of people delete a few of those tweets.
In one of the best rookie receiver seasons in NFL history, Chase was everything we could have expected and more. Despite sitting out the 2020 college campaign, he didn’t miss a beat as a rookie. Playing in all 17 games, Chase was a backbreaker for NFL secondaries, hauling in 81 of 121 targets (23.7% target share) for 1,455 yards (fourth-most in the league) and 13 touchdowns (third-most).
When Joe Burrow needed a big play, Chase was his No. 1 target. The rookie was ninth in air yards with 1,617, accounting for 37.06% of the team’s total (10th-highest rate league-wide).
That same level of upside is there in 2022. The Bengals completely revamped their offensive line, leading to more time for Burrow to scan for his former LSU teammate. Also, the Bengals are moving Chase into the slot more, something that is unfair to the rest of the league as you can’t really double-team a slot WR, and the CB doesn’t have the boundary to squeeze him.
The hope is this adds more consistency to Chase’s game. If it does, you’re looking at the WR1 of 2022. While Chase was the WR5 in PPR formats (17.9 PPR/game), he was a WR1 in just 29% of his games and a WR2 or better (top 24) in 41%.
He only had three games with single digits, so even his bad games didn’t ruin your week. Nevertheless, more stability is never a bad thing. Just ask anyone who rostered Cooper Kupp last year and benefited from his 94% top-24 rate and 88% WR1 rate. While unlikely, it is certainly in the range of outcomes for Chase in 2022.