Coming off a strong couple of years, J.D. McKissic is an intriguing fantasy football option for the 2022 season. Can he be a fantasy asset in all three formats at his current price, or does he stand out as a value in one in particular? Let’s examine whether fantasy managers should look to add McKissic at his current ADP in their 2022 fantasy football drafts.
J.D. McKissic ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
McKissic’s current ADP across the different redraft formats is extremely intriguing. A player best known for his pass catching, McKissic’s overall ADP is highest in non-PPR (just inside the top 150). His ADP in PPR is not significantly lower (150th), but his half-PPR ADP is outside the top 160. He is being taken as around the RB50 in non-PPR and full-PPR but closer to RB60 in half-PPR.
The differences in McKissic’s ADP reflect the danger of the consensus. The half-PPR number is heavily influenced by his ADP of 197 overall as the RB61 on Yahoo. Equally, on NFL.com, McKissic is being selected 193rd overall as the RB55, affecting his PPR ADP. Meanwhile, his 125th overall ranking as the RB50 on RTSports is pulling up his non-PPR and PPR numbers. This emphasizes the importance of knowing the ADP for a player on the particular site you are drafting on.
McKissic’s projected fantasy value in 2022
McKissic’s usage numbers over the last two years raise some questions. He played on 59% of the team snaps in 2020, but that dropped to 45% before his injury last year. He also saw a drop of around one rush attempt and two targets per game, for a loss of three opportunities per game on average.
However, his fantasy output was not all that much impacted. In PPR, his ADP dropped from 12 to 11.6 fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, in non-PPR, his per-game numbers actually increased from seven to 7.7.
The reason for that was an increase in McKissic’s efficiency last year. His catch rate jumped from 72.7% to 81.1%, and his yards per reception was 9.2 as opposed to 7.4. He also scored four total touchdowns in just 11 games, compared to three in 16. Those efficiency numbers were all career-highs that will be hard for McKissic to repeat.
The question then is where we see McKissic’s usage go this season. Will that decline we saw last year continue, or can he bounce back closer to his 60% play time from 2020?
The Commanders’ RB depth chart
It looked as though things were about to get very messy in Washington’s backfield. Brian Robinson appeared to have usurped Antonio Gibson for the starting RB role, pushing Gibson into a potential rivaling role with McKissic as a passing-down back. However, Robinson was involved in an incident after the third preseason game that meant he would miss a large portion of the season — potentially all of it.
It has thrown the Commanders’ backfield into a strange situation. Gibson is now the seemingly de facto lead running back, which somewhat clears up McKissic’s role as the complementary RB. Unless the Commanders add someone to push Gibson out of that starting role, we could see a fairly similar usage for McKissic and Gibson to last season.
Yet, the uncertainty that caused Gibson to be replaced by Robinson still remains. That could be a good thing for McKissic. While his body type will likely never make him a lead back, he could see more rotational work in the offense than last year.
Last year, Gibson averaged 16.1 rushing attempts per game and 3.25 targets. If McKissic can pick up even two or three of those touches, it could push him into the high-end RB3, low-end RB2 region. The problem is that this backfield is so tough to judge right now. There are so many variables at play. Even drafting today, things could change by the start of Week 1. This is a somewhat rare situation, so there is no real historical precedent to lean on from an analysis point of view.
Should you draft McKissic in 2022?
The problem with drafting McKissic right now is the uncertainty. A trade or a signing could flip the entire outlook of the Commanders’ backfield. However, based on the information we have right now, McKissic should be in line for similar usage to last year or even a little bit of an increase.
Therefore, we can look at last year for an idea. On a per-game basis, McKissic was the RB31 in PPR and the RB40 in non-PPR. The uncertainty over how things may evolve has seen him sit outside the top 40. Yet, he is inside the top 50 in PFN’s consensus 2022 RB fantasy rankings. Either way, he appears to be a value at his current ADP across all formats.
The only thing to watch is whether the news of Robinson’s absence pushes up McKissic’s ADP. However, the expectation is that Gibson is the biggest beneficiary, so McKissic’s ADP should not increase massively heading into the season. Therefore, targeting McKissic just ahead of his ADP in the 11th or 12th round is a solid value for the RB. However, moving on him much earlier than that would absorb the majority of his upside and limit the value of the selection.