The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Minnesota Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr. ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. After missing all of last season, what can we expect from Smith in 2022, and where should he go in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
Irv Smith Jr. ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Smith currently has an ADP of 170, coming off the board as the TE19. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Smith Jr. is currently the TE19 with an ADP of 158.
Smith Jr. was supposed to break out last year, yet a torn Meniscus halted that before it started. He was participating in camp and appears good to go for the season. There was a slight scare when he injured his thumb on Aug. 1, but he has returned and has been catching balls, leaving the only concern his conditioning, which Smith mentioned himself.
If you are waiting for a late-round TE, Smith is a name to keep in mind as the breakout potential is still there, especially in a less run-heavy offense in 2022. I wouldn’t rule out a top-12 finish for Smith either, but as with any late-round tight end, managers should be willing to cut bait early if things aren’t moving in the right direction.
Irv Smith Jr.’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Selected with the No. 50 overall pick in 2019, Smith was always in the shadow of a veteran in Kyle Rudolph, as most young tight ends are as they learn the position. But there were signs of upside when on the field in 2020. Smith caught 30 of 43 targets for 335 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 7.6 ppg. In the four games without Rudolph in the lineup, Smith averaged 12.83 ppg with a 16-game pace of 60 receptions on 80 targets for 732 yards and 12 touchdowns.
In the 11 career games where Smith saw at least four targets, he averaged 3.7 receptions for 39 yards and 0.45 touchdowns (on 5.2 targets per game), which some back-of-the-napkin math tells me comes out to 8.7 ppg. Even in his place last year, Tyler Conklin averaged 3.1 receptions on 5.2 targets for 34.2 yards and 8.1 PPR/game.
With Conklin now with the Jets, Smith has a legitimate shot to be the No. 3 target for Kirk Cousins in an offense that has utilized the TE under Kevin O’Connell. In 2019, Washington TEs saw 15.7% of the targets. In his two years with the Chargers (2020-2021), they saw 21.3% and 21.7%, respectively.
While Smith’s upside is capped by both Justin Jefferson and especially Adam Thielen in the red zone, a 60-reception, 600-yard season is a reasonable target for Smith. Cousins does have comfort with him, as Smith was eighth in yards per target and second in QBR when targeted among TEs in 2020. As a bench stash, Smith could be a starting-caliber TE in the right matchups in 2022 and worth considering in upcoming fantasy drafts.