The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into New York Jets WR Elijah Moore’s ADP to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value in fantasy drafts. One of the many bright stars at receiver last year, can Moore continue to shine in 2022 and maintain the WR1 status in the Jets offense?
Elijah Moore ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Moore currently has an ADP of 86, coming off the board as the WR37. For comparison, Moore is going 18 picks before rookie Garrett Wilson as the WR46. In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Moore is currently the WR39, but be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Personally, I am a bit more bullish on Moore and feel he is the Jets’ WR1 for fantasy purposes. Currently, Moore falls inside the WR3 range as the WR32, just behind Brandon Aiyuk and ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Drake London. As for his teammate, Garrett Wilson is a bubble WR4 at the moment, fluctuating in the 48-51 range at his position.
As far as Moore’s ADP is concerned, he falls in a great draft spot in the mid-seventh round (12-team leagues). By this point of the draft, odds are most managers will have at least their running back room sorted and the first two wide receivers, meaning Moore is likely the WR3 or first Flex option.
That feels about right. Moore’s floor, assuming he is the target leader as expected, should be in the low-end WR3 range but could also push into the WR2 or better territory as he did last season. Truth be told, this isn’t even Zach Wilson dependant. Last year, when Wilson was out, Moore still found success with Mike White and Joe Flacco. If anything, he thrived.
In their seven games together, Moore averaged 8.1 PPR/game. Granted, this was while he was fighting with Jamison Crowder for the starting gig. Yet, in the four without him, Moore was averaging 20.88 PPR/game.
Like many things, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. Moore feels appropriately priced at his current ADP given the state of the Jets’ offense and his infinite talent. I’ve been winding up with quite a bit of Moore on my rosters so far, and honestly, I just want Moore of it.
Elijah Moore’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The 2021 NFL rookie class was sensational, especially at receiver. Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith received the majority of headlines. However, it was much deeper as St. Brown, Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman, and Elijah were significant contributors at one point or another.
It was almost a tale of two seasons for Moore. In the first part of the year, the Jets seemed content with Crowder as the primary starter. But eventually, Moore’s talent shined through.
From Weeks 6-13, Moore was the WR8 in PPR scoring, posting 35 receptions on 57 targets for 472 yards and five touchdowns (17.7 PPR/game). While Moore only ran a route on 47% of the Jets’ passing plays, he was targeted on 24% of them.
When Zach Wilson returned from his knee injury last year, he only had eyes for Moore. Moore saw 33.9% of the Jets’ targets in Weeks 12-13, while more than 40% of his receptions gained 15+ yards. Although his 50% catch rate leaves a lot to be desired, only 55% of his targets were deemed catchable, so Moore did about as well as you could’ve asked. That same chemistry should be there from the jump in 2022. Well, once Wilson gets back from his knee injury, that is.
Last year was a rookie season for more than just the players
Where I expect another improvement to be made is in the coaching. Remember, the Jets had a rookie head coach and OC last year in Robert Salah and Mike LaFleur. While rocky at first, there were improvements. LaFleur’s offense looked cohesive after Week 8, averaging 20.9 ppg after putting up 13.3 in the team’s first six games.
Around that same time, the Jets began to make changes schematically. The big move was getting away from 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE). From Weeks 1-5, they ran 12 personnel 36% of the time, third-most in the NFL. They deployed two-TE sets just 13% of the time after their Week 6 bye (26th) while running 3+ WR sets 77% of the time and throwing on 55% of their plays in neutral script situations.
During this, Moore also saw his role altered. He went from being a vertical threat to finally being used to attack all three levels of the defense. From Week 8-13, Moore was eighth in the league in receptions (34), sixth in yards (459), tied for first in touchdowns (5), tied for sixth in yards after the catch (168), and fourth in passer rating when targeted (127.0).
There is zero incentive to change it around in 2022. If anything, the selection of Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft allows Moore to remain free in his role. Wilson should act as that vertical field stretcher Moore was playing to start his rookie campaign.
Although I don’t quite see 1,000 yards as his likely outcome, I wouldn’t completely rule it out. A realistic season for Moore is in the 110-115 target range with around 70 receptions and 900 yards. For a mid-seventh-round pick, I’ll take that all day long.