Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is coming off a down year and now preparing to adjust to life without Russell Wilson. What is Metcalf’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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DK Metcalf ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Metcalf is being drafted as the WR15 with an ADP at around 43 overall. Whether fantasy managers draft Metcalf is entirely ADP dependent. This is still an immensely talented player who was being drafted top six at the position just one year ago. He’s now going outside the top 36. We’re getting a discount, but is it enough?
According to our consensus rankings, it’s not. In our 2022 fantasy football rankings, Metcalf is the WR23, which is still a bit higher than plenty of others out there. I personally thought I was high on Metcalf, but apparently not.
We know wide receivers can post elite seasons on bad offenses. It’s happened before and it will happen again. Are we willing to bank on Metcalf being one of the outliers this season? I’m willing to take that gamble if the price is right.
I’m not completely out on Metcalf. He has the skills and ability to overcome his situation. I just need the price to drop a bit. Based on ADP, he’s not there. However, every individual draft is different. If Metcalf tumbles, falling into the fifth round, I’m taking that shot. But if he’s going around cost, there are just better options at that price.
DK Metcalf’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Metcalf followed up a good, but not great rookie season with a sophomore year breakout. He caught 83 passes for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020. That was good for an average of 17 PPR fantasy points per game. Entering his third season in 2021, expectations were even higher. Sadly, Metcalf floundered.
Everything worked against Metcalf in 2021. First and foremost, his coach was (and is) Pete Carroll. Second, Metcalf injured his foot early in the season and had to manage the injury throughout the year. He wound up not missing a game, but he was clearly less than 100%. Third, Russell Wilson had one of the worst seasons of his career, completing just 64.8% of his passes and averaging 222.4 passing yards per game.
The Seahawks also played at, by far, the slowest pace in the NFL. They somehow ran a mere 53 plays a game. The second-slowest team ran 57 plays on average. Despite having Wilson as their quarterback, the Seahawks attempted 495 passes, just one more than the Eagles for the fewest in the NFL.
Metcalf also didn’t play at his same elite level. Perhaps the injury is to blame, but the Seahawks treated Metcalf like a true WR1, and he did not answer the call. Metcalf saw a career-best 27% target share but caught just 58% of them. Metcalf’s total target count was identical to 2020 and he played in an extra game. Yet, somehow, his receiving yardage dropped by 336.
The good news for Metcalf is he always has the ability to bail himself out with touchdowns. He scored 12 last season, which kept a bad season from becoming a disastrous one. Unfortunately, Metcalf may have a hard time matching that number this season with Wilson now in Denver.
Impact of the Seahawks’ depth chart on Metcalf’s fantasy value
The whole “Wilson in Denver thing” is the biggest barrier to a Metcalf rebound season. This is the only significant change to the Seahawks’ offense, but it’s a huge one.
With Geno Smith the presumptive starter and Drew Lock possibly taking over at some point, it really doesn’t get much worse. This offense should score less, sustain drives for shorter periods of time, and the overall target quality will decrease.
As if the Seahawks didn’t have bigger needs, they drafted Kenneth Walker III in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Walker is a talented runner, but this team didn’t need another running back, especially one in Round 2. But hey, that’s the Pete Carroll Seahawks. Most teams play to win — the Seahawks play to establish the run.
The saving grace could be a team so bad that it has no choice but to throw in an effort to make up deficits. If there’s any positive to take away, it’s that Metcalf actually averaged more points per game with Smith (17.2) than with Wilson (13.9) last season.
Metcalf is also a true alpha X receiver. He doesn’t need precision passing from his quarterbacks or meticulous timing routes to get open. They can just throw it up and he’ll come down with it more often than not.
Bad quarterbacks tend to lean on their top receivers because of their inability to go through progressions. When they panic, they throw it up. Metcalf could benefit from a few extra 50-50 balls that he comes down with.
If someone is going to emerge amidst what could be the worst offense in the league, it will be Metcalf. Betting on talent is usually a good idea. Metcalf has it in spades. If Metcalf falls a round or so below his ADP, he’s worth the gamble.