Carolina Panthers wide receiver DJ Moore enters the 2022 season with a new quarterback and a great chance to finally catch more than four touchdowns. What is Moore’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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DJ Moore ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As the WR18, Moore’s ADP is around 43rd overall. By the time you’re reading this, we are entering the final big fantasy draft weekend of the summer. Moore’s ADP is still heavily impacted by all of the drafts that occurred before the past couple of weeks. More recently, I’ve been seeing Moore creep into the third round.
Even at that price, I’m pretty much all in on Moore this season. He’s been remarkably consistent over his past three seasons and is definitively good at football. The only thing standing between him and a WR1 finish is quarterback play. But surely, Baker Mayfield can’t possibly be worse than Sam Darnold.
While Moore is no longer going at his floor, he has enough plausible upside to still be a worthwhile pick at his ADP. I’m not reaching for Moore. I won’t take him over guys like Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman Jr. But once those guys are gone, I’m fine locking in Moore in the late-third/early-fourth round of fantasy drafts.
DJ Moore’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Moore is the epitome of consistency. He’s totaled between 1,157 and 1,193 receiving yards over his past three seasons and scored exactly four touchdowns in each. During those three years, he averaged between 14 and 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game.
Moore’s also been remarkably durable. He’s played in all but two games throughout his four years in the NFL. The knock on Moore has never been his floor, but his ceiling. You know he won’t let you down, but he’s never really been a difference-maker.
In 2021, Moore saw a 28.5% target share, the highest of his career. He was sixth amongst wide receivers in routes run and fifth in target share. The volume will be there. The production will be there. But if Moore is going to ascend toward WR1 numbers, he needs to get that touchdown total up.
Over the past three years, Moore has underperformed his expected TD total by around three. While three touchdowns may not seem like much, that’s a full ppg. It’s possible Moore is just someone who is bad at scoring touchdowns. But there’s usually an explanation, and in this case, it’s Moore’s lack of red-zone targets.
Impact of the Panthers’ depth chart on Moore’s fantasy value
In his career, Moore has a total of 42 red-zone targets. Across 63 games played — that’s just 0.67 red-zone targets per game. It’s certainly possible the Panthers just don’t see the 6’0″, 210-pound receiver as a red-zone option, but there are other factors involved.
Carolina’s depth chart is, for lack of a better word…lacking. As a rookie in 2018, Moore caught passes from a declining Cam Newton. Since then, the best QB he’s played with is Teddy Bridgewater, who most would classify as a borderline NFL starter/high-end backup. Every other quarterback is not a starting-caliber QB in the NFL — Kyle Allen, Will Grier, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, and the 2021 version of Newton.
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback Moore has played with
I’m still not sure why the Panthers immediately picked up Darnold’s fifth-year option after they traded for him ahead of the 2021 season. What exactly did they expect? I guess they deserve some credit for not doubling down on their error.
Mayfield is by no means some savior. But he is better than Darnold — a man with a career completion percentage below 60% and more interactions than touchdowns over his past two seasons.
Moore remains the clear WR1 in Carolina, and I expect his target share to remain elite. However, it’s worth noting that Moore saw a 24.3% target share in 2019, which was the only season in which Christian McCaffrey was healthy. Even so, given that Carolina’s WR2 is Robbie Anderson and their WR3 is either Brandon Zylstra or Rashard Higgins, there will be plenty of targets for both CMC and Moore to eat.
I’m sure someone’s immediate reaction to me calling Zylstra or Higgins the WR3 was, “What about Terrace Marshall?” Unfortunately, he’s not just an NFL-caliber wide receiver.
Moore has the talent to produce a WR1 season. With Mayfield, I have more confidence in Moore’s ability to finally realize his full potential. Mayfield could propel Moore to a 1,300-yard season and finally get him in the end zone more than four times.
If even one of those things happens, Moore will be a value this season. And if he has an outlier season in his favor, we could see 10+ touchdowns and a league-winning campaign. Moore is currently ranked as our consensus WR12 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings.