The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value in their fantasy football drafts.
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Deebo Samuel ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to prime draft season for fantasy football, Samuel currently has an ADP of 16, coming off the board as the WR6. For comparison, Brandon Aiyuk (WR39) is going around 81 picks later (ADP 97).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Samuel is currently the WR5 with an ADP of 16, showing an equally bullish outlook on his season. I have Samuel a bit lower as my WR7 but above ADP at 15 overall. However, be sure to check back as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
I have little doubt Samuel will be a must-start, top-12 receiver in 2022. However, I don’t expect the same WR3 performance we saw last season. Samuel was public in the offseason about wanting to be used as a “normal” receiver. With that said, he now has about 73.5 million reasons to keep doing what the 49ers want him to do. Otherwise, why re-sign knowing there’s an open market waiting on you?
Samuel’s ADP has fallen to a place where I’m comfortable taking the risk on the repeat performance, but we are on the upper edge of what would be “reasonable.” That being said, you aren’t going to find him any cheaper on draft day. Thus, if you want Samuel, it will cost you a second-round pick at the latest. Overall, that feels fair for the upside he brings.
Deebo Samuel’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Last season, Samuel was one of the top stories for fantasy football. He was the 49ers’ do-it-all player, and fantasy managers were lucky enough to snag him at a ridiculous value on draft day. As mentioned, Samuel was the WR3 in fantasy football last year, playing in 16 games. Along with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams, the trio were the only receivers to average over 20 PPR points per game.
Samuel, however, made his money on the ground, setting a new NFL record with eight rushing touchdowns with 365 yards on 59 carries. But for as insane as this was, it only represented 24.9% of his fantasy points.
In all likelihood, Samuel is not being given enough credit for the season he had as a receiver. Hauling in 63% of the targets (121), enough for the team lead and a 26% target share, Samuel recorded 1,405 yards (18.25 ypc) and six touchdowns on 77 receptions. In total, Samuel’s 82.65 yards per game was fifth-most amongst receivers.
From an efficiency standpoint, Samuel stood out as one of the league’s most efficient players. But can it carry into 2022?
Trey Lance has already shown a desire to push the ball down the field, not check down. For reference, 60% of Samuel’s targets were behind the line of scrimmage (21%) or shorter than nine yards down the field (39%). No doubt Samuel will have a fair share of these but likely not to the same volume as he did with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
When going vertical this preseason and training camp, the ball has not been going to Samuel, and instead to Aiyuk and even rookie Danny Gray. While he can do this, Samuel’s best value is when he’s being hit in stride in the short to intermediate, then piling on the yards after the catch. Samuel not only led all receivers in yards per reception (18.1) but also in yards after the catch, with 10.4 coming with the ball in his hands (minimum 30 receptions).
That is going nowhere anytime soon, and in an offense that could be even more explosive with Lance, Samuel has a clear path to WR1 status, even if not the overall WR1. At that same time, I feel that Aiyuk is the better draft day value at cost, though Samuel has a safer floor and higher ceiling.