The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins’ ADP in fantasy football drafts to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Is it worth stashing him for six weeks before he can join your starting lineup?
DeAndre Hopkins ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Heading into Year 10 in the NFL, Hopkins enters fantasy football drafts as the WR34 with an ADP of 81. For a comparison, Hopkins is going 11 WR selections after Marquise Brown (ADP of 61) but quite a bit ahead of Rondale Moore, the WR62 with an ADP of 174.
Hopkins’ ADP has shifted in recent weeks and now closely matches PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings which place the former All-Pro receiver as the WR37 with an overall rank of 91st compared to Brown at around 74th overall as the WR31.
Personally, I have Hopkins as the WR46 even though, on a per-game basis, he will be far ahead of this ranking. The issue for Hopkins is fantasy managers are guaranteed to have him for a maximum of 11 games as he serves a six-game suspension to start the season after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. Any additional time missed will further place Hopkins behind his peers.
I will not write Hopkins off on draft day for fantasy but whether or not someone should draft him depends on their roster. If you have four receivers already, odds are you can absorb the loss of Hopkins. Once he returns, you have a WR2/3 on your roster with obvious WR1 upside.
However, with Hopkins going in the backend of the sixth round, it’s unlikely you have that much depth already. Not without significantly neglecting other positions, at least. When he is on the field, Hopkins should be a locked-in starter. But you need a solid roster to absorb the “lost” pick early in the year. Based on his current ADP, I am unlikely to roster Hopkins in many fantasy leagues in 2022 unless it falls a decent amount between now and the regular season.
DeAndre Hopkins’ projected fantasy value in 2022
When at full form, Hopkins is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL and fantasy. Unfortunately, after a successful first year in Arizona, 2021 was not as smooth for Hopkins. The WR21 in fantasy points per game, Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts.
It was the first time since 2017 that Hopkins was outside the top 20 in targets per snap. That drop in volume impacted his ceiling as Hopkins pulled in 42 passes for 572 yards and eight touchdowns on 63 targets. After finishing as the WR4 overall and WR5 with 18.0 PPR/game in 2020, it was a staggering dropoff.
Not only did he struggle, but Hopkins was also injured, missing seven games due to a rib injury in Week 3, a hamstring injury in Week 8, and a torn MCL suffered in Week 13, which ended his season. Not only are we questioning what Hopkins’ value is due to his suspension, but can he stay healthy and get back to the same level we remember?
What if that player is gone? The simple age factor may be the most straightforward explanation for the underperformance and injuries. At 30 years old, Hopkins is not getting any younger, so it’s absolutely reasonable to wonder if this year will be more of the same.
Hopkins has gone from a low-end WR1 for fantasy to a questionable WR3. If you can hold out for Hopkins to return, I can understand the value but only if you are buying into last year being an outlier, not a new trend. If it clicks, you drafted a mid WR2 at WR4 value. My current projections have Hopkins in the 14 to 15 points-per-game range in 2022. Yet, if the injuries and struggles return, a critical pick in a high-leverage part of the draft was all for not.