Dawson Knox’s ADP for fantasy football is at an all-time high after coming off an excellent 2021 season. Having finished as a top-10 player on average across the various formats, there is optimism that this could be a sign of things to come as he enters his fourth year in Buffalo. Is Knox’s ADP too optimistic, or has he found the right value in 2022 fantasy drafts?
Dawson Knox ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Knox’s current ADP, across the three different formats, shows a range of around 15 selections between them. In non-PPR, Knox is going outside of the top 100 on average, compared to inside that for PPR and just inside the top 90 for half-PPR. In all three formats, he is going as the TE10 off the board.
That all means that in a 12-team league, Knox is going in the eighth or ninth round. His ADP is highest on Yahoo, where he is being selected 73rd overall as the ninth TE off the board.
Knox’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The 2022 season will see a shake-up in the Bills’ offense. Gone are Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, and in their place are Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder. And Gabriel Davis is expected to take a bigger role on the outside opposite Stefon Diggs. While the names change, the main view of the offense should remain the same. Buffalo should largely be an 11-personnel offense, with McKenzie or Crowder in the slot and Diggs and Davis on the outside.
There is one other notable addition: James Cook. Cook’s receiving ability should not be underestimated. Last year, the RB position took just 91 targets out of 623 (14.6% target share). Cook’s ability out of the backfield could see that share increase and potentially push up towards the 20% mark. That share will likely eat into a little of everywhere, but Knox does not have a massive share to lose.
Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns
Knox finished second on the team behind Diggs in terms of receiving touchdowns in 2021. His nine touchdowns came on 71 targets and 49 receptions. More than one in six of his receptions was a touchdown, and one in eight of his targets resulted in a score. Continuing that efficiency is difficult, especially with just a 15.8% share inside the 20.
Another threat to that for Knox is Davis’ potential for elevated playing time. Despite playing just 51% of the offensive snaps in 2021, Davis had a 14.9% share of the red-zone targets and a 16% share inside the 10-yard line. In a more prominent role in the offense, he has a chance to climb above Knox and be second on the team behind Diggs.
If Knox doesn’t repeat his touchdown numbers, it is imperative he does not see regression in his other efficiency numbers. His 69% catch rate was 13% higher than either of his first two seasons, a massive improvement of around 20%. His yards per reception remained flat at 12 over the past two years, but even with 3.3 receptions per game, he will have limited fantasy value averaging 40 yards per game and not finding the end zone regularly.
Should you draft Knox in 2022?
It is very hard to make a case that Knox is a value at his current ADP. We expect the shape of the offense to remain the same despite Brian Daboll’s departure as offensive coordinator. His replacement is Ken Dorsey, who was the QBs coach and the passing game coordinator under Daboll in 2021. Therefore, expecting Knox’s target share to jump significantly above a career-high 11.4% from last year is optimistic, to say the least.
That means we need those efficiency numbers across the board to remain the same. That is a tough ask, and if those fall even a little, he could tumble down the positional rankings on both a per-game and overall basis. In PFN’s consensus 2022 TE fantasy rankings, Knox is the TE13 in PPR formats and the TE9 in non-PPR.
With around 50 receptions being his most likely outcome, he is not providing significant value in PPR formats. In those formats, especially on Yahoo, his ADP is one to avoid unless he slips through another two or three rounds in your draft. In non-PPR, the touchdown upside remains, but there are still concerns. His value as the 10th tight end off the board, just outside the first 100 selections, is pretty much right in that format.
Knox is certainly not a player to reach for, but he sits in a group of other high-risk, high-reward options. Betting on that type of player in the Bills’ high-powered offense is certainly not a crazy decision, but only at the right price. Based on his current ADPs, the only place that is even close is in non-PPR leagues.