After three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, Dalvin Cook’s fantasy football value in 2022 is intriguing. Injuries and touchdown regression have impacted the narrative around him this year. With that in mind, let’s examine Cook’s ADP in 2022 fantasy football drafts and whether he can return value on that price.
Dalvin Cook ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Cook’s current ADP in redraft fantasy leagues is the seventh overall player in all three main scoring formats — non-PPR, half-PPR, and full-PPR. He’s either the RB5 or RB6 across all three scoring formats and all of the major sites. The only variation is where he is being selected overall. On some sites, Cook is going as high as the fifth player overall on average, and on others, it’s as low as ninth overall.
That all means that Cook is a first-round selection in nearly all 1QB leagues. Regardless of whether the league you play in is a 10-team, 12-team, or deeper, that is what you should expect. The picture in Superflex is a little different. With QB values being pushed up, Cook is generally selected in either the second or third round, depending on how many QBs are taken in those first two rounds.
Dalvin Cook’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Cook’s value for 2022 is tough to judge when we look at the previous three years of his career. Firstly, injuries. He has missed at least two games through injury in each of the past four seasons. While injuries are not predictive, it’s hard to see Cook as a candidate to suit up for 16 or 17 games.
As we expected, entering 2021, there was some regression in Cook’s numbers. However, the regression, especially in terms of the receiving game, was stark. It was always unlikely Cook would match his career high in yards per rush attempt from 2020, and that proved to be the case. It was also no surprise that his touchdowns dropped from 17, but the plummet to six was a surprise.
In terms of receiving, Cook averaged just 6.6 yards per reception, down from 9.8 and 8.2 the years before. That’s important because his average depth of target was consistent with his career average. However, he struggled to make the same amount of yards after the catch as he has previously. From 2018 to 2020, he averaged between 9.3 and 11.2 yards after the catch per reception. That dropped to 8.2 in 2021.
That also coincided with a reduction in catch rate below 70%, but more importantly, a drop in the frequency of broken tackles. In the prior three years, Cook averaged a broken tackle every 6.5 receptions. In 2021, that shot up to 11.3 as he broke just three tackles. The pattern was similar in the run game. In the first three years, Cook broke a tackle every 11.0 rushing attempts. It was once every 15.6 in 2021.
Those numbers could just point to a bad year, but a pattern is emerging. Cook’s yards after contact per rushing attempt dropped from 2.4 in each of the previous two years to 1.9 in 2021. A drop of 0.5 might not seem a lot in a vacuum, but it was a reduction of 21% per carry. When you spread 0.5 yards over 249 rushing attempts, it’s 125 yards Cook lost comparatively.
That loss of efficiency was somewhat hidden as his yards before contact per attempt rose to a career-high of 2.7. The problem is that at RB, once your ability to break tackles, make people miss, and generally be evasive is gone, the decline is pretty steep.
It’s tough to project Cook’s usage in a new offense
Projecting usage in the offense under Kevin O’Connell is tough. Both of Cook’s previous two seasons of success had been in a Kubiak offense (Gary or Klint). That is why we cannot really even consider red-zone usage or usage in general from recent years because it actually doesn’t matter all that much.
Meanwhile, when we look at the recent history of O’Connell as the offensive coordinator in Los Angeles, the picture is murky. During that stretch, no back has averaged more than 50% of the touches per game, but equally, there’s not been a clear lead back during those two seasons.
When we look back to his time as the OC in Washington, Adrian Peterson dominated the carries, averaging 14.1 in an offense that averaged 22.3 per game. However, that was a rushing offense that ranked 31st in attempts and 26th in touchdowns with a 34-year-old RB.
So we have a mixed picture. When there was a clear lead back, O’Connell gave him the carries, but that was under two offensive-minded head coaches in Jay Gruden and Bill Callahan. There was also a lack of competition for touches. Then under another offensive-minded head coach, who called the plays, we saw more of a split of touches.
Will O’Connell view Cook as his Peterson? A clearly superior back who should get the bulk of touches. The Vikings can get out of Cook’s contract after this year, so at 27 years old, they can run him into the ground and move on. Or will he see a more even backfield with two backs he has to make a decision on this year (Mattison is on an expiring contract)?
It’s really hard to project Cook’s usage because we just don’t know how O’Connell will see it. If we see the downward trend of elusiveness and ability to break tackles, could we see more of Mattison than we do Cook? It isn’t the most likely outcome, but it’s a terrifying outcome to contemplate for your first-round pick.
Should you draft Cook in 2022?
Cook is a player that is giving me a headache in fantasy drafts. All of the numbers from the past three years scream that he’s a solid value at his current ADP. In PFN’s consensus RB fantasy rankings, we have him as a top-10 RB in all three formats and a first-round pick in 12-team leagues in all three.
However, for me, he’s outside of the first round. I’m the only one. Tommy Garrett, Jason Katz, and Ian Wharton all think he is a solid selection at his ADP. There are just too many question marks for me to spend a first-round or early second-round pick on him.
For me, it’s the decline in output with an eye on elusiveness-based metrics that weighs heavily. It may only be a one-year thing, but I would rather be out a year early on a player with those red lights than a year or two late. That, combined with the uncertainty over usage, has just shifted him to a point where unless he falls into at least the middle of the second round, Cook will be on someone else’s team.