Dallas Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz suddenly finds himself as possibly the second man on the target totem pole in Dallas. What is Schultz’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Dalton Schultz ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Schultz’s ADP has him going as the TE6 in drafts at around 58 overall. Schultz is a very interesting tight end this season. He goes in that area of drafts where historically it’s been a bad idea to take tight ends. At the same time, the stars seem to be aligning for him to have a massive season.
Schultz is still firmly below the top tier of tight ends. But I’m not necessarily out on him. It really depends on how a particular fantasy draft goes and what the wide receiver and running back landscape looks like when Schultz is the top tight end on the board.
The area of drafts in which Schultz goes is home to several high-upside wide receivers. But Schultz himself also has some serious upside. It really comes down to how you view Schultz compared to the tight ends below him.
Schultz is kind of on an island by himself. Although he’s ranked as our consensus TE5 in our 2022 fantasy football rankings, I have him at TE6 behind George Kittle. Basically, the way I see it is there are the top five tight ends, Schultz, and then “the rest.” Schultz could end up being closer to the top five than the rest, but the reverse could also be true. Your feelings on the situation should dictate whether Schultz is worth drafting at his ADP.
Dalton Schultz’s projected fantasy value in 2022
Schultz’s ascent to the Cowboys’ starting TE role was anything but expected. Blake Jarwin was supposed to be the Cowboys’ tight end of the future. Unfortunately, multiple injuries derailed his career.
Schultz took over following Jarwin’s 2020 Week 1 ACL tear. After a scorching start where he posted 21.8 PPR fantasy points, Schultz went on to be rather pedestrian. He only reached double-digit fantasy points four more times that season, with one of them occurring in the meaningless Week 17 game.
In 2021, Schultz established himself as a legitimate starting tight end. He saw a 16.4% target share, ran the fifth-most routes at the position, and averaged 12.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
Entering the 2022 season, Schultz was hoping to earn a long-term extension, but he’s playing on a one-year deal. He has all the motivation in the world to prove to the Cowboys (or another team) that he’s a long-term answer at tight end.
Impact of the Cowboys’ depth chart on Schultz’s fantasy value
The Cowboys’ offense has undergone some changes since last season. This opens the door for Schultz to take on an even bigger role in what was the highest-scoring offense last season. Dallas led the league at 31.1 points per game and scored the most touchdowns with 64.
Schultz could be the second-most targeted pass catcher
The big changes in the Cowboys’ passing game came at wide receiver. They traded Amari Cooper to the Browns for a bag of peanuts. Michael Gallup is set to miss at least the first few weeks of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. The team’s attempt to plug the holes came in the form of signing James Washington and drafting Jalen Tolbert. Then, Washington broke his foot in training camp.
As things currently stand, the Cowboys are almost certainly going to start the rookie opposite CeeDee Lamb in Week 1. Who is Dak Prescott more likely to trust: the rookie third-rounder? Or old reliable Dalton Schultz? The tight end’s 12.2 ppg from last season feels like his floor.
The Cowboys run a fast-paced, high-volume offense
The Cowboys not only score a lot of points, but they do so quickly. Last season, they ran the second-most plays per game and played at the third-fastest pace. Dallas also had a 60% neutral game script pass rate.
This is a team that already threw more than average despite having a defense that was generating a ton of turnovers, resulting in the Cowboys leading the NFL in turnover differential. Those stats are not sticky year to year. The defense is likely to regress.
If this team has to score a few more points and throw a few more passes every game, Schultz could push a 20% target share. If that happens, a top-five season is well within his range of outcomes.