Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s fantasy football returns through his first two seasons have been somewhat underwhelming. Entering his third year in the league, is that now set to change? Let’s look at Edwards-Helaire’s ADP in 2022 fantasy football drafts and see whether he has a chance to return value at his current price.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Edwards-Helaire’s current ADP in redraft fantasy leagues is extremely consistent across the three main scoring formats. His ADP across the three formats is between 60th and 65th overall. He is the RB25 in PPR, RB26 in half-PPR, and RB27 in non-PPR. Across the various sites, his ADP ranges from RB24 to RB31, with an overall ADP between 59 and 73.
Therefore, Edwards-Helaire is generally selected late in the fifth or early in the sixth round. There is, of course, variation from site to site, but the narrow range of his ADP across the sites is indicative that his ADP range is not that wide in normal circumstances.
Edwards-Helaire’s projected fantasy value in 2022
In the two years that Edwards-Helaire has been in the league, there have been some concerning trends. His snap share dropped from 59 percent to 50 percent, and his per-game fantasy returns fell in both non-PPR and PPR. The reasons behind that include a drop in rushing attempts and targets, resulting in a decline of three touches per game.
The Chiefs’ depth chart regarding the RB position is always complex. That is no different this year. While Edwards-Helaire is listed atop that depth chart, three other backs could all compete for touches.
Last year, the Chiefs averaged 25.4 rush attempts per game, but Edwards-Helaire only saw 11.9 of those. The good news is that barring injury, Edwards-Helaire never saw fewer than nine rush attempts per game. He also saw at least two targets in eight of 10 games.
If we look back through his first two seasons, the pattern persists. He was the Chiefs’ lead back in the first six games of his career. He has more than 20 rush attempts in three of those first six weeks. He never saw fewer than 10 and was over 15 on a fourth occasion. Additionally, he had more than five targets per game on average during that time.
Then things changed. From Week 7 of the 2020 season onwards, Edwards-Helaire had more than 15 rush attempts just once. He was targeted five times or more, just twice. His snap percentage had been 60 or over in all of those first six weeks — it reached that threshold just once more in the next seven games he played.
For whatever reason, the Chiefs have changed their mind and have never reverted to using Edwards-Helaire as a bell-cow-type back.
Can Edwards-Helaire be a weekly starting option?
To be an RB3 every week in PPR leagues, RBs need to average around 10 fantasy points per game, give or take, depending on the week. To be an RB2, that number rises to 12.2. Those are the thresholds we should evaluate Edwards-Helaire based on his current ADP.
Last year, Edwards-Helaire scored more than 10 fantasy points in seven of his 10 games and more than 12 fantasy points in four of the 10. It is somewhat unfair to hold the game against the Bills or Steelers (Weeks 5 and 16) against him because he was hurt during those games. Therefore, Edwards-Helaire returned RB3 value in all but one game he started and completed last year. He was an RB2 in half of those games.
The RB options on the Chiefs’ current depth chart are not significantly more impactful than last season. Therefore, we should consider Edwards-Helaire an RB3 candidate most weeks, with RB2 upside half the time.
However, injuries are a concern. Edwards-Helaire has missed 11 games out of 33 in his career. That is a third of his NFL career games he has not been able to suit up for. While RB injuries are not predictive, they should not be idly dismissed, especially when there are also concerns over the depth chart to factor in.
Should you draft Edwards-Helaire in 2022?
It is always important to note that no player should ever be completely off your draft board. Every player has a value that they are a worthwhile asset. However, for Edwards-Helaire, his current ADP is a touch high for that threshold.
In PFN’s consensus RB fantasy rankings, we have Edwards-Helaire outside of the top 30 at the position and outside the top 70 overall in all three formats.
Therefore, even at his lowest ADP across all the sites, he is still not a value in our estimation. There are multiple concerns: the crowded depth chart, the injuries, and the relative lack of ceiling. Drafting a player as a borderline RB2 when he was such on just four occasions last year with no certainty of an expanded role is a reach.
Now, if he drops by a round and falls into the mid-seventh to early eighth, that equation somewhat changes. A player that is an RB3 70 percent of the time he starts a game, even accounting for injuries sustained during the game, is a valuable asset for your roster.
It just has to come at the right price, and based on the current ADP, Edwards-Helaire is not coming at the right price.